Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 52.8% of Issues Advancing, 43.5% Declining
• 111 New 52-Week Highs, 44 New Lows
• 44.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 35.5%
• Vix 9.9 -5.1%
• Total Put/Call .92 -8.0%
• TRIN/Arms .91 -19.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 -.25 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 18.75 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.0 +.06%.
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CBOE)/.86
• (CI)/2.48
• (CTB)/.74
• (ITT)/.63
• (NWL)/.87
• (SUP)/.46
• (TM)/153.14
• (BRK/B)/2800.98

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 180K versus 222K in June.
• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 4.3% versus 4.4% in June.
• The Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• The Trade Deficit for June is estimated at -$44.5B versus -$46.5B in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Retail Sales report and German Factory Orders report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Less Economic Optimism, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Telecom/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.08 -1.95%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.42 -.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.63 -.26%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.01 +5.54%

• ISE Sentiment Index n/a
  

• Total Put/Call .98 +1.03%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 +9.71%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.12 +1.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 430.0 -1.37%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 50.20 +.32%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.46 -.55%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.72 +.03%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 185.58 -.99%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 140.64 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 24.25 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 +1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.94 -.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.07% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 90.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $72.93/Metric Tonne +.87%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.10 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.10 +1.2 basis points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.90 +.1 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 -1.0 basis point
  
• 17.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 43.8% chance at Dec. 13 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -39 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -3.2% 2) Energy -.8% 3) Biotech -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TEVA, TTMI, TCAP, CATM, HABT, SWIR, CENX, CLI, THS, GKOS, SBGI, AXTA, HOLX, BECN, DDD, PE, MOH, ABC, COMM, RGR, CXO, TSE, MYL, BID, CRUS, LCI and ABC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SM 2) MYL 3) CTL 4) AMC 5) DDD

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FTR 2) HABT 3) FARO 4) LLEX 5) EXEL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.1% 2) HMOs +1.0% 3) Networking +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UBNT, STMP, CHGG, SEDG, CENT, ANGI, DATA, SODA, WMGI, MGPI, QLYS, OSUR, MGNX, INOV, WYN, CASH, ICPT, NICE, TTWO, RAIL, SRCL, HZO, CENTA, IRTC, LDOS, CENTA, UNT, NSIT, QLYS, AYX, ANGI, CCRN, INOV, FORM, IAC, MRO, CORTRSO, HIIQ, TSLA, SRCL, ARRS, OMF, CF, K, DVAX, CCOI, TDOC, AXGN, MAC, AGIO, RGEN, ICPT, RP, PPC, SCLN, MUSA, ALRM, SUPN, TFX and CINF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NXST 2) AET 3) IAC 4) TTWO 5) CTL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) STMP 2) SODA 3) LEE 4) AMRS 5) TTWO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 47.9% of Issues Advancing, 47.4% Declining
• 72 New 52-Week Highs, 48 New Lows
• 45.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.4%
• Vix 10.3 unch.
• Total Put/Call .96 -1.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +28.8%