Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Global Growth Optimism, Oil Gain, Financial/Technology Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.11 +.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.74 -.74%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.15 -2.18%

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -18
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -12.1%

• NYSE Arms .56 -59.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.08 -2.59%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 637.0 +.55%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.71 -.91%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.25 -2.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.81 -.86%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 187.92 -2.56%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.02 -.29%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 1.75 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 32.25 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 +1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.06 +.24%

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% unch.

• Yield Curve .23 +5.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.23 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.0 -8.2 basis points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.5 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.4 +1.9 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 +3.0 basis points

• 13.5% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 22.5% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +300 open in Japan 

• China A50 Futures: Indicating +109 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/retail/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -1.7% 2) REITs -1.2% 3) Utilities -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DBX, PRAH, PLAY, WORK AEO, EVER, GMRE, PI, MNTA, VRA, AYX, RCKT and PLCE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GLW 2) BKLN 3) OLLI 4) AYX 5) GIS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WSG 2) WST 3) BHVN 4) MMSI 5) GKOS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +3.1% 2) Oil Service +2.9% 3) Networking +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ASMB, KRTX, CIEN, CLVS, FTSV, MDLA, PLAB, WYNN, MODN, PLCE, LITE, CNST, FORM, PLAY, AEO, SWAV, IRBT, SOI, WDC, AMD, ANDE, DERM, SWK, LOGM, ADPT, GE, REVG, TKR, AB, CHWY, LASR, PGTI, ESI, SCHW and DNOW

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EMB 2) LQD 3) KEY 4) LVS 5) DHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CIEN 2) LL 3) ASRT 4) DAL 5) GE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +19.8% Above 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 63.7% of Issues Advancing, 34.0% Declining
• 186 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 59.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.1%
• Vix 14.1 -5.7%
• Total Put/Call .88 -11.1%
• TRIN/Arms .61 -56.1%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.0 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 -1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.95 +.06%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CIEN)/.63

After the Close:

• (ADBE)/2.26
• (AVGO)/5.35
• (COST)/1.72
• (ORCL)/.89

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 214K versus 203K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1678K versus 1693K prior.

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth for 3Q.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB rate decision/press conference, $16B 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA Energy Inventory report, BofA Water Conference, (DAL) investor day, (MET) investor day and the (ALB) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Optimism, FOMC Commentary, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.7 -.19%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.19 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.79 -.44%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.55 -3.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +11
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -2.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.22 +37.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.80 -.23%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 636.0 -.80%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.20 +.09%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.5 -1.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.40 -.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.51 -2.01%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.50 +.26%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 1.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 33.50 -1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.83 +.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .17 -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.43%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.2 -.5 basis point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.7 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.3 +.3 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 -1.0 basis point
• 17.7% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 29.2% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +34 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long