Thursday, December 12, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Global Growth Optimism, Oil Gain, Financial/Technology Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.11 +.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.74 -.74%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.15 -2.18%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -18
  • Total Put/Call .87 -12.1%
  • NYSE Arms .56 -59.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.08 -2.59%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 637.0 +.55%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.71 -.91%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.25 -2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.81 -.86%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 187.92 -2.56%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.02 -.29%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 32.25 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.06 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% unch.
  • Yield Curve .23 +5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.23 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.0 -8.2 basis points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.5 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.4 +1.9 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 +3.0 basis points
  • 13.5% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 22.5% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +300 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +109 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/retail/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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