Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Lighthizer Scores Trifecta of Wins for Trump’s Trade Agenda.

• No Date Set for U.S.-China ‘Phase Two’ Talks, Lighthizer Says.    

• Hong Kong Protesters Clash With Police as Lam Visits Beijing.   

• Australia Cuts Forecasts for Wage Increases, Economic Growth and Budget Surplus.

• Johnson Gets to Work Naming Cabinet and Taking U.K. Out of EU. 

• Asian Stocks Set to Open Mixed After Trade Deal. Asian stocks look set to start the week mixed after a partial U.S.-China trade deal yielded few details. The offshore yuan was firmer as China avoided extra tariffs. U.S. futures edged higher and Australian stocks opened with modest gains. Futures on Japanese equities were little changed. Washington and Beijing agreed to a first phase of a broader trade deal on Friday that will see China boost imports, including of American agricultural products, and the U.S. halving duties on $120 billion of Chinese goods. The U.S. has also delayed levies that were due to be imposed on Sunday, and China said it will suspend additional tariffs on certain American imports. Oil slipped back below $60 a barrel. Nikkei 225 futures were little changed in Chicago. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures fell 0.7% earlier. S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.1%. The gauge was little changed Friday.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• The Bull Market Almost No One Saw Coming. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Investors Exit Havens as Worries Ease, Lifting Stocks.

• U.N. Climate Talks End Without Deal on Carbon Markets.

• ‘Multiple Levels of Hearsay Upon Hearsay’.

• Warren Would Destroy Private Equity—at Everyone’s Expense.

• Hallmark Faces Boycott Calls Over Gay Wedding Ads.

• U.S. Steel, the Company That Built America, Faces Its Age.

• China Pulls U.K. Soccer Game After Star Player Slams Beijing.

• Economists Got the Decade All Wrong. They’re Trying to Figure Out Why.

Fox News:

• Ex-FBI director accuses Barr of 'irresponsible statement' on FBI conduct, admits some mistakes.

CNBC:

• Lighthizer acknowledges USMCA concessions: ‘Democrats won the House’.

• Boeing reportedly nears decision on cutting or halting 737 Max production.

• Lighthizer says phase-one trade deal is ‘totally done’ and will double exports to China in two years.

• Congress faces high-stakes week with impeachment, trade and funding votes ahead.

Zero Hedge:             

• It's D-Day For The Repo Market: On Monday $100 Billion In Liquidity Will Be Drained - What Happens Next?

• Second Damning FBI Lie About Carter Page Revealed In IG Report: Sperry.

• Schiff: 'I Had No Idea FBI Was Committing Serious Abuses When I Said All That Stuff'.

• "It Was Real Sloppy": Comey Comes Clean On FISA Abuse: "Horowitz Was Right, I Was Wrong".

• Schiff, Nadler Insist Impeachment "Not A Failure" Despite Plunge In Public Support, Interest.

• Greta Apologizes For Execution Comment As People Question Who's Actually 'Ruining Her Childhood'.

• Chinese Gangs Infect Pigs With Swine Fever In Criminal Meat Scheme.

• "It's Sickening": Elon Musk's P.I. Dug Through Vern Unsworth's Trash To Find Dirt.

• Recently Retired USAF General Makes Eyebrow-Raising Claims About Advanced Space Technology.

• All Hell Breaks Loose In India As Violent Protests Spread After Citizenship Law.

• The Fed Will Buy 40% Of US Treasury Net Issuance In 2020.

• China Threatens To Kill German Car Exports Should Huawei Be Banned.

• IG Report On FBI Spying Exposes "Scandal Of Historic Magnitude" For US Media.

Business Insider:

• China's next gambit to save its economy will export dystopia worldwide.

• 12 AI startups that will boom in 2019, according to VCs. 

• The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X are both scheduled to arrive in 2020. Here's how they stack up.

• 40 Big Tech Predictions for 2019.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.25 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.14 -.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.72%.

• S&P 500 futures +.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• (HEI)/.57

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to rise to 4.0 versus 2.9 in Nov.

9:45 am EST

• The Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 52.6 in Nov.

• The Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 51.8 versus 51.6 in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec. is estimated at 70.0 versus 70.0 in Nov.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Services PMI report and the (AEIS) investor conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.