Thursday, December 05, 2019

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.7 -.54%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.28 +.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.89 -.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.9 -4.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 +1
  • Total Put/Call .96 -4.0%
  • NYSE Arms .92 +15.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.39 -.73%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 626.0 +.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.53 +.93%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.5 +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.9 -.31%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.03 +.11%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.36 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 35.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.62 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.53% unch.
  • Yield Curve .21 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.26 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.3 +1.9 basis points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.8 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.9 -.1 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 -1.0 basis point
  • 12.3% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 26.6% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +15 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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