Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Global Growth Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Energy/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.3 unch.
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.41 -.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.45 +.16%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.31 -7.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 -1
  • Total Put/Call 1.1 +69.2%
  • NYSE Arms .72 -37.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.84 -.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 561.0 -2.98%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.80 +.71%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.75 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.53 -4.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 180.60 -.53%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.13 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +1.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 35.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.26 -.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% unch.
  • Yield Curve .26 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.91 USD/Metric Tonne -.64%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.70 +.2 basis point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.0 +5.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.5 +.8 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 +3.0 basis points
  • 7.1% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 16.9% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +47 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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