Friday, December 13, 2019

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Announcement, UK Election Outcome, Global Growth Optimism, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.3 -4.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.21 -.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.69 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.68 -1.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +4
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +42.86%
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 +112.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.92 -.42%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 613.0 -3.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.84 -3.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.75 +4.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.70 -3.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.54 -1.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.59 -.25%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 34.25 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +6.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.13 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .23 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.53%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.5 -5.5 basis points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.6 -1.4 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 -1.0 basis point
  • 9.2% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 22.6% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -113 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -56 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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