Gary, I've been reading this blog for about 15 years now. Years ago, around '05-'08 and beyond you called for the secular trend of disinflation to continue, mother of all short covering rallies, and a bull market for true growth stocks at a time when these were unpopular ideas. 2008 and 2009 happened in that time. You were still exactly right. Amazing. Truly. Truly amazing. I mainly wanted to acknowledge that. Also wonder how you think about small cap value stocks and international stocks going forward. Thanks.
Thanks for reading Elliot! Thanks also for the kind words. I think there is a strong possibility that economic growth will surprise to the upside in the upcoming year due to the elimination of Brexit uncertainty, a pricing in of the continuation of current US economic policies, less trade war uncertainty and global central bank stimulus. Global bond yields will likely move higher, but not too much to kill economic activity. Thus, small-cap value should outperform next year. This will likely prove only a cyclical upturn in relative performance versus growth. I expect the secular trend of value underperformance to reassert itself by 2021 at the latest.
2 comments:
Gary, I've been reading this blog for about 15 years now. Years ago, around '05-'08 and beyond you called for the secular trend of disinflation to continue, mother of all short covering rallies, and a bull market for true growth stocks at a time when these were unpopular ideas. 2008 and 2009 happened in that time. You were still exactly right. Amazing. Truly. Truly amazing. I mainly wanted to acknowledge that. Also wonder how you think about small cap value stocks and international stocks going forward. Thanks.
Thanks for reading Elliot! Thanks also for the kind words. I think there is a strong possibility that economic growth will surprise to the upside in the upcoming year due to the elimination of Brexit uncertainty, a pricing in of the continuation of current US economic policies, less trade war uncertainty and global central bank stimulus. Global bond yields will likely move higher, but not too much to kill economic activity. Thus, small-cap value should outperform next year. This will likely prove only a cyclical upturn in relative performance versus growth. I expect the secular trend of value underperformance to reassert itself by 2021 at the latest.
Post a Comment