Friday, December 20, 2019

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Global Growth Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.5 -.16%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.82 -.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.47 -.92%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.71 +3.56%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 -40
  • Total Put/Call .74 -3.9%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -21.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.08 -1.43%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 541.0 -1.56%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.35 -.87%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 +4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 54.01 -2.21%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.81 -1.04%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.20 -.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 36.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.5 -2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.27 -.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% unch.
  • Yield Curve .29 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.90 USD/Metric Tonne +2.01%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.6 +.4 basis point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.30 +5.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.2 -.1 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 unch.
  • 9.2% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 16.5% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +63 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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