Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Optimism, FOMC Commentary, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.7 -.19%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.19 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.79 -.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.55 -3.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +11
  • Total Put/Call .92 -2.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 +37.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.80 -.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 636.0 -.80%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.20 +.09%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.5 -1.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.40 -.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 194.51 -2.01%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.50 +.26%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 33.50 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.83 +.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .17 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.43%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.2 -.5 basis point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.7 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.3 +.3 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 -1.0 basis point
  • 17.7% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 29.2% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +34 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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