Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.4% 2) Video Gaming +1.0% 3) Computer Hardware +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MDB, BTBT, PD, DOCN, AMR, RKLB, ALEX, AI, NTNX, CTLP, SLQT, MARA, GDRX, DOCU, ASAN, SEER, ESTC, AVPT, SAIC, RSI, GWRE, SMAR, KNBE, PCOR, ROVR, CERT, DVAX, NCNO, LCID and BILL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MDB 2) FBRX 3) DOCU 4) EAT 5) URA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PD 2) MDB 3) DOCU 4) OOMA 5) CTLP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -19.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 29.8% of Issues Advancing, 66.1% Declining
• 108 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 72.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,003.0 +46.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,895 +.69%
  
• Vix 16.4 +.1%
• Total Put/Call .78 +16.4%
• TRIN/Arms .90 -5.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.25 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.57 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,873.0 -84.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.18%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Aug. is estimated to fall to 725K versus 943K in July.
• The Unemployment Rate for August is estimated to fall to 5.2% versus 5.4% in July.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to 61.8 versus 64.1 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Services PMI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Virus Lockdown Fears, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.7 +3.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,955.0 -22.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.76 +.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.55 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.51 +1.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0  -25.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 -20.0%

• NYSE Arms .99 -27.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.42 +.71%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 401.51 -1.45%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.67 +.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.61 -1.09%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 150.09 -.72%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.40 -.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 8.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.5 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.54 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 109.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 143.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -51.8 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.9 -.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.5 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.2% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 355 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +10/100K people
• 67% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.5% 2) Computer Services -.5% 3) REITs -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OLN, ADSK, PFN, HRL, AXSM, VEEV, LE, DVAX, CHWY, AI, PHR, SWBI, TCBI, ORMP, FIVE and AEO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FIVE 2) CIEN 3) FIS 4) COG 5) AMBA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ASMB 2) SWBI 3) FIVE 4) CHWY 5) ALKS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +3.5% 2) Oil Service +3.1% 3) Al Energy +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ASAN, NCNO, OSCR, VERU, CERT, SMTC, CHPT, PWR, NTNX, INMB, GRTS, FUCV, COG, ACI, APPS, FIGS, XEC, AR, LPRO, SKT, RNA, APP, GMS, MTCH, MRO, U, FSLY, HES, CRC, TTCF, BAX, HRC, RTLR, BSM, MARA, TDC, IEA, CCL, KR, CNR, FIVN, AMR and DTIL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALDX 2) WSC 3) INFI 4) URA 5) FIVE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ASAN 2) NCNO 3) SMTC 4) CHPT 5) BNED
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume