Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.9% 2) Homebuilders +3.3% 3) Retailers +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VTNR, GME, ETSY, PTON, CHWY, EYE, PHR, DDS, BSY, SCPL, EXFY, TWST, HLF, WEN, AHCO, UTZ, AMC, W, RLAY, VCYT, WRBY, GSHD, NCNO, RCUS, HRB, COIN, PLL, SQ, ARWR, ITOS and CFLT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KSS 2) RNG 3) VST 4) HZNP 5) TPR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APP 2) SQSP 3) ETNB 4) TPR 5) DDS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +44.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 55.9% of Issues Advancing, 40.8% Declining
• 3 New 52-Week Highs, 785 New Lows
• 23.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 35.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,550.0 -209.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,953.50 +.77%
  
• Vix 32.6 +.06%
• Total Put/Call 1.14 +.88%
• TRIN/Arms .68 -38.2%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Major China Developer Sunac Misses Payment as Crisis Spreads.
• Shanghai Community Covid Spread Damps Chance of Easing Curbs.
• Goldman Joins Calls to Unleash More Rate Hikes in Emerging Asia.  
• Kim Orders Lockdown After North Korea Reports First Covid Case.
• Bitcoin ETFs Arrive in Australia Just as the Crypto Market Tanks.
• Stocks Extend Slide on Worries Over High Inflation: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Holds Jump as US Fuel Stockpiles Slide Before Driving Season.
• Crypto Billionaires’ Vast Fortunes Are Destroyed in Weeks.
• Stablecoin Rescue Plan Gets Cold Shoulder From Big Investors.
• ‘Everything Broke’: Terra Goes From DeFi Darling to Death Spiral.  
• Instacart Files Confidentially for an IPO That Could Happen This Year.  
• Baby Formula Shortage Sparks Democratic Inquiry, GOP Attack   
• Scrutiny of Elon Musk’s Twitter Moves Intensifies in Washington.
• Prices in US Outstrip Forecasts in Sign of Inflation Persisting.
• Fed Should Hike to 5% or Higher to Curb Inflation, Dudley Says.

 Wall Street Journal:

• Grocery, Airfare Inflation Reached Historic Highs.
• Heard on the Street: Inflation Has a Long Way to Fall to Stop Being a Problem.
• Podcast: Why the Fed Risks Causing a Recession.
• How Prices Climbed in April.
• Inflation Stays in the Heights. The policy mix of blowout government spending and easy money is punishing workers.
• New York Leads America off a Renewable-Energy Cliff. Biden is following Andrew Cuomo’s example, with predictable results. 
• Latest: Ukraine Offers Exchange of Russian POWs for Safe Passage of Injured Mariupol Fighters.
• Stablecoin at Heart of Crypto Finance Plunges.
• Moderna Ousts Finance Chief in First Week on the Job.

Fox News:    

• Leftists lose it after Manchin slaps down Dems' bill guaranteeing abortion access before SCOTUS ruling.
• Why Biden adviser insists skyrocketing prices are part of 'effective strategy'.

CNBC.com:

• Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining near 40-year highs.
• Apple is no longer the world’s most valuable company.
• Bitcoin extends sell-off, Coinbase loses millions of users and LUNA crashes to $1: CNBC Crypto World.
• Student loan debt hits another record high despite payment forbearance.
• Controversial stablecoin UST — which is meant to be pegged to the dollar — plummets below 30 cents.

MarketWatch:        

• Beyond Meat’s stock slides 26% on weak sales, heads lower than IPO price for first time.
  
• Fed’s Bullard backs plan to hike rates by 50 basis points at each of next two meetings.
  
• As a baby formula shortage worsens, Abbott says it can get some product back on store shelves in July.  
• Coinbase CEO says company has ‘no risk of bankruptcy’.  
• 8 oil stocks that are still bargains for long-term investors.  
• Disney stock turns to a loss after warning about rough road ahead for streaming.

Zero Hedge: 

• Acting NIH Director Admits Appearance Of Conflict Of Interest In Secret Royalty Payments To Fauci, Scientists.  
• 18 Signs That Food Shortages Will Get A Lot Worse As We Head Into The Second Half Of 2022. 
• Garland Perjury? FBI Whistleblowers Say Parents Investigated With Counterterrorism "Threat Tag".
• Seniors Sacrifice Health And Comfort As Inflation Lowers Standard Of Living.
• UN Chief Joins Chorus Of Western Officials Saying 'No Chance' Of Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal Anytime Soon.
• There Goes The Housing Market.
• Major Trucking Firms Prepare For "Imminent Diesel Shortage In Eastern Half Of US".
• Wall Street's Biggest Bear Sees Much More Pain, S&P Dropping As Low As 3,350.
• Biden Disinformation Czar Demands Power To Edit Other People's Tweets.
• The Growing List Of US Companies Laying People Off.
• Watch: US Intel Chief Acts Dumbfounded When Senator Warns Of "Poking The Bear" In Ukraine.
• US Overdose Deaths Reach New Record As Fentanyl/Meth Use Soars.
• What Is DARPA Planning With The WEF?
• The Chinese Slowdown: Much More Than COVID.
• Bitcoin Breaks To Lowest Since 2020 As Stablecoin 'TerraUSD' Rebounds.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Markets whipsawed post-CPI data.
• After Denial, BLM Co-Founder Admits To Holding Parties At $6M Mansion Bought With Donations.
• California To Hire "Water Cops" As Residents Ignore Newsom's Conservation Plea Amid Megadrought.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Markets whipsaw to CPI bombshell as stock rout continues but Bonds hold strength.
• Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Bid As Bad-flation Batters Bitcoin & Big-Tech.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• After Angry Mobs Protest Justice Alito’s Home, Virginia Gov. Youngkin Sends Letter Asking Local Police to Set Security Perimeter Around Justices’ Homes.
• Biden Randomly Starts Screaming About Food Shortages… Currently Happening Under His Administration, Rips Into “MAGA Crowd” (VIDEO).
• Attorney General Garland Orders US Marshals to Beef Up Security for Supreme Court Justices Following Request by Maryland and Virginia Governors.
• Bill Clinton’s Special Advisor and Jeffrey Epstein Handler Who Flew on Lolita Express Dies at 59.
• Biden Spox Karine Jean-Pierre Laughs When Asked Who’s “Running Point” on Baby Formula Shortage (AUDIO).
• Millionaire Democrat Tells Politico Inflation Sob Story of Putting Back $9.99 Lb. Bacon as Wake Up Call to Out of Touch Dems.
• SHOCKING: Per New Mexico Auditors Dominion Voting Systems Can Fill-In Ballots – Uncovered 2019 New York State Audit Confirms This.
• Analysis of Federal Data Shows Increase in Covid-19 Deaths Occurred Among the Vaccinated – Experts Warn More Breakthrough Deaths to be Expected with More Americans Reaching Fully Vaxxed Status.
• The NIH Doled out $30 Billion Last Year in Grants and the Entity and Its Scientists Received an Estimated $350 million or More in Royalties from 2010 to 2020.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 813,020 Reports(+2,850 from prior week) Through April 29th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.75 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  83.25 -1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.9 +.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,719.0 -40.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.4 1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.6%.

• S&P 500 futures +.59%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.79%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BABA)/7.24
• (GOOS)/-.01
• (DDS)/5.87
  

After the Close:

• (AFRM)/-.41
• (POSH)/-.22
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.4% gain in March.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 192K versus 200K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1368K versus 1384K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Daly speaking, UK GDP report, 30Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (FSLY) investor day and the (NET) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Forced Selling, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 33.0 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,733.0 -74.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.72 -.52%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 +.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.7 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.08 +9.1%

• NYSE Arms .97 -6.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.39 -.03%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 418.28 +.06%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.43 -3.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.04 -2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 295.23 -.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.89 -.48%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,703.27 -1.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 51.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 basis points unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.42 +.07%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.86 +.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .88% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 28.25 basis points (2s/10s) -7.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +6.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.3 -1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.5 -3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +6.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 164 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +8/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -87.9%(+1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -203 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -133 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -172 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -6.7% 2) Homebuilding -3.8% 3) Retail -3.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PTON, LYFT, WCC, TREX, RPD, CUTR, SKT, GH, MIDD, GFS, ISEE, GRPN, ECOM, SSYS, WWW, AB, FLYW, RNG, HR, EYE, PEGA, LAND, KYMR, OM, SBNY, INBX, PFGC, RVNC, MCW, ASPN, WEN, BRZE, COCO, ACET MARA, ARWR, DOCS, UPWK, APPN, RIVN, ICHR, BEAM, PLUG, BROS, LCID, RPAY, SG, SI, RLAY, BSY, SQ, SKIN, RYI, CVNA, JXN, DISH, AFRM, NVAX, UPST, BRP, MSTR, COIN, RCUS, ITOS and U
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) EA 3) ATUS 4) ROST 5) ABR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) U 2) COIN 3) ITOS 4) RCUS 5) INO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +1.8% 2) Utilities +1.5% 3) Energy +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HRB, CELH, GO, ELY, VTNR, PAR, EA, SWCH, EOLS, DRE, RAPT, VECO, SCPL, RBLX, HTZ, XRAY, KNBE, NE, TNDM and DV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EA 2) IP 3) NEO 4) BOX 5) DISH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HRB 2) RGLS 3) GO 4) PAR 5) ELY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume