Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Forced Selling, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 33.0 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,733.0 -74.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.72 -.52%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 +.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.7 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.08 +9.1%

• NYSE Arms .97 -6.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.39 -.03%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 418.28 +.06%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.43 -3.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.04 -2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 295.23 -.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.89 -.48%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,703.27 -1.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 51.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 basis points unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.42 +.07%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.86 +.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .88% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 28.25 basis points (2s/10s) -7.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +6.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.3 -1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.5 -3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +6.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 164 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +8/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -87.9%(+1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -203 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -133 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -172 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long