Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• EU Plans to Issue Detailed Guidance on Russia’s Rubles-for-Gas Demand.
• Ukraine Latest: Pentagon Sees Poor Russian Morale, Bad Logistics.  
• Fertilizer Buyers Are Eyeing Canada to Fill Global Potash Deficit.  
• Nutrien Boosts Outlook for Potash Sales as Fertilizer Surges.  
• EU Plans to Court Africa to Help Replace Russian Gas Imports.
  
• Japan Seen Unlikely to Intervene on Yen With Fed’s Jumbo Hike Looming.
  
• Korea’s Fastest Inflation Since 2008 Raises Rate Pressure.
  
• U.S. Futures Dip Ahead of Asia Open; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Near $105 as Demand for Fuels Offsets China Lockdowns.
• Ken Griffin Says Fed Needs 4% Inflation This Year to Avoid Recession.
• PGIM’s Hunt Says Bond Market Shows U.S. Risks Recession by 2024.  
• Twitter Says Musk Deal Uncertainty Could Cost Staff, Advertisers.

 Wall Street Journal:

• 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3% for First Time Since 2018.
• Spirit Airlines Rejects JetBlue Takeover Bid.
• Amazon Workers Reject Union in New York After Labor Victory at Separate Facility.
• Latest Updates From the War.
• Facing a Wheat Crisis, Countries Race to Remake an Entire Market on the Fly.
• How Do Bubbles Form? Tulips and Gamestop Can Help Explain.

Fox News:     

• Elon Musk goes scorched-earth on NBC, runs through network's most notorious scandals.

CNBC.com:

• Fears of a Fed mistake grow as this week’s anticipated interest rate hike looms.
• ‘Bubble’ hitting 50% of market, top investor warns as Fed gets ready to meet.
• Australian markets set to fall ahead of closely watched interest rate decision.
• Home affordability is nearly the worst on record as mortgage rates spike.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Chegg, Clorox, Devon Energy and more.

 MarketWatch:              

• These stocks soared during the pandemic, and then crashed. 10 are now expected to double in price.  
• Recession is ‘almost inevitable’: former Fed Gov. Ferguson says.

Zero Hedge:

• "Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste" - Biden Official Says Fertilizer Shortage Will Spark Green Farming Transition.
• "All's Well That's Orwell" - Musk Tosses Tactical Nukes At 'Ministry Of Truth' And Trust-Fund Journo. 
• Wall Street Journal Claims "Shadow Crew" Of Billionaires Urged Elon Musk To Buy Twitter.
• Russian TV Warns Britain Can Be 'Drowned In Radioactive Tsunami’ By Single Nuclear Sub Strike.
• Venture-Backed Sale Of 'Virtual Land' Raises Millions In Buying Frenzy.
• Mayorkas Says DHS Preparing For Surge In Immigrants After Title 42 Ends, Warns "Do Not Come".
• Kim Jong Un Warns Of 'Preemptive Nuclear Strike' If North Korea Threatened.
• Sen. Scott: Left-Wing Groups Using Race, Lawsuits To Carry Out Election Fraud.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Nasdaq led the late rebound and S&P 500 recovered from YTD lows.
• MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell Rejoins Twitter, Suspended Again Hours Later.
• Two Weeks To Flatten The GDP.
• Citadel's Griffin Warns 'West Faces Existential Problems'.
• Too much fear?
• Russia's Progress In Donbas "Minimal At Best" As 5,000 Javelins Have Entered Ukraine: Pentagon.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks rebound higher in late trade after earlier YTD SPX low was made in holiday-thinned market depth.
• May-Day Mayhem: Stocks Dump'n'Pump, Bonds Blowout, & Commodities Chaotic.

Newsmax:

• A Swing State No More? DeSantis Thinks Election May Flip Florida Red in a Big Way.
• Demand Way Up for High-End Nuclear Bunkers in Europe.
• Push to Arm Ukraine Putting Strain on US Weapons Stockpile.
• Warren Buffet: Wouldn't Buy 'All of the Bitcoin in the World' for $25.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Russian State News TV Anchor Warns of Nuclear Missile Strikes on West (VIDEO).
• PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Every State Should Follow The Lead Of The Patriots In Arizona Where Yesterday Kari Lake and Mark Finchem Filed A Lawsuit To BAN ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES”.
• Auditor Geels: After Georgia Election Was Stolen – Secretary of State Raffensperger Still Refuses to Address Lawsuit on Irregularities of 2020 Election.
• ‘Will People on the Board Censor Information that is Not Helpful to Biden?’ – Peter Doocy Grills Psaki on Biden’s ‘Ministry of Truth’ (VIDEO).
• THIS WON’T END WELL FOR DEMOCRATS: Grand Jury Selected in Fulton County to Investigate Trump on JUNK CHARGES — The Day Before “2000 Mules” Movie Release Exposes PROVEN CONSPIRACY FRAUD in 2020 Georgia Election.
• Here We Go: NYC Raises Covid Alert Level to “Medium” Due to Rising China Virus Cases.
• BREAKING: Foreclosures Up 181% in One Year – Home Sales Down 12.6% vs. Last Year.
• Not Making Headlines… George Soros Dumps $750,000 into Wisconsin Midterms as Democrats Gear Up for the Steal.
• Dr. Birx Says US Must Prepare for Summer COVID Virus Surge Just Prior to 2022 Election.

The Epoch Times:

• Excessive Government Spending is Dragging Down the American Economy, Analysts Say.
• Republican Lawmakers Voice Concern Over Biden’s ‘Orwellian’ Disinformation Board.

Twitter: 

• @KLVeritas - We all need to be her voice, every single one of us…this cannot be allowed. This is the hill…Vanessa Martins Figueiredo was only 13 Years Old. 5 days After Pfizer, symptoms started. She didn't improve, she just got worse. She passed away on 1/10/2022, two months later. My daughter was healthy, she got vaccinated. My daughter got sick and died. It was the vaccine. Sudden rise of unvaccinated children with liver damage, were breastfed (by fully vaccinated mothers) | The Irish Sentinel.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.25 -.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS  79.0 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.13 +.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,131.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.8 -.33%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AGCO)/1.91
• (BIIB)/4.36
• (BP)/.24
• (CNHI)/.24
• (CMI)/3.55
• (DISH)/.75
• (DD)/.67
• (ETN)/1.60
• (EL)/1.67
• (EXPD)/1.71
• (IT)/1.72
• (HLT)/.65
• (ITW)/2.07
• (INCY)/.69
• (ITT)/.97
• (LEA)/1.57
• (LPX)/4.57
• (MLM)/1.61
• (TAP)/.19
• (PFE)/1.57
• (ROK)/2.32
• (SMG)/4.80
• (SEE)/.93
• (VSH)/.58
• (WAT)/2.34
• (ZBH)/1.42
  

After the Close:

• (AMD)/.92
• (ABNB)/-.24
• (AKAM)/1.42
• (CZR)/-2.08
• (CRUS)/1.40
• (HRB)/3.81
• (LSCC)/.33
• (LYFT)/-.07
• (MTW)/.04
• (MTCH)/.49
• (MSTR)/-2.10
• (PRU)/2.68
• (RRR)/.62
• (SWKS)/2.63
• (SBUX)/.60
• (WERN)/.87
• (YUMC)/.33
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for March is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a -.5% decline in Feb.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for March.
• JOLTS Job Openings for March is estimated to fall to 11200K versus 11266K
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Unemployment Rate, Eurozone PPI report, weekly US retail sales reports and the Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and metals shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.