Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• China Premier Warns of ‘Grave’ Jobs Situation as Lockdowns Weigh. 
• China Stimulus Fails to Ignite Housing Sales Over Key Holiday
• Vanishing Value Trade Puts Emerging Markets at Risk of Fed Shock.
• Ukraine Latest: Mariupol Siege Dwindles to Plant’s ‘Dead Men’.   
• Peso Is Poised for Deeper Drop as Marcos Jr. Eyes Presidency.  
• ECB’s Rehn Wants July Rate Hike as Second-Round Effects Seen.
• U.S. Futures, Bonds Decline Amid Fragile Sentiment: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Declines as Traders Weigh G-7 Crude Ban, Saudi Price Cuts
• Saudis Cut Oil Prices from Record Highs Amid China Lockdowns.  
• As Wheat Prices Soar, Africa Pivots to Cheaper Alternatives.
  
• Pelosi Says ‘We Have to’ Pass $33 Billion Ukraine Aid Package.
• Bill Gates Says Economy ‘Bears’ Have Strong Argument on Slowdown.  
• U.S. Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.27%, Highest Since 2009.
• Bitcoin Breaches Key Level; Do Kwon-Backed Stablecoin Slips.
• Bankers Quit Jobs for Shot at Riches in ‘Wall Street of Crypto’.
• Colleges Are Launching TikTok Classes for Influencers Making $5,000 a Post.
• A Texas Tale of Tinder, Millions in Stolen Crypto and Murder.  
• Biden Taps Democrats’ Abortion Fury as Midterm Wipeout Looms.  
• Lockheed CEO Says Supply Chain Must ‘Crank Up’ to Build Javelins.  
• Day Trader Army Loses All the Money It Made in Meme-Stock Era.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hospitals Look to Raise Treatment Costs as Nurses’ Salaries Increase.
• Tech Industry’s Epic 2-Year Run Falters.
• Latest Updates: Jill Biden Makes Unannounced Visit to Ukraine.
• Embattled Ukraine Soldiers in Mariupol Say They Will Fight to the End.
• Market’s Slide Has Already Changed Investor Behavior.
• Electricity Shortage Warnings Grow Across U.S.
• With Higher Pay, Better Hours, Teens Jump Into Hot Job Market. 
• The Inflationary April Jobs Report. Employers added workers, but labor participation fell.

Fox News: 

• Report reveals where Supreme Court majority vote allegedly stands now on overturning Roe v. Wade.
• Liberals celebrate protests outside SCOTUS justices' homes, churches: 'Mass Resistance'.
• Russian official claims swift destruction of NATO if nuclear escalation occurs.
• Fauci reportedly frustrated about optics of WH Correspondents' Dinner.

CNBC:

• Stocks could see more tumult next week, especially if bond yields continue to scream higher.
• G-7 leaders mark VE Day stressing unity, support for Ukraine.
• Ford is selling 8 million shares of once high-flying EV maker Rivian, sources say. 
• Bitcoin drops below $35,000 over the weekend, extending Friday’s losses. 

Zero Hedge:

• No Matter What Weird Language Biden Prefers, Today Is Still Mothers' Day.
• All Civilians Have Exited Azovstal Plant As Holdout Fighters Say Final Days Are 'Hellish Reality Show'.
• Make Twitter Great Again.
• Russia's Victory Day Could Be A Crucial Moment For Oil.
• Ukraine Grain Strain: Almost 25 Million Tonnes Blocked From Export.
• The Battery Boom Will Redraw Geopolitical Maps.
• Goldman Trader: The State Of The Market Is To Bleed To Lower Lows Interrupted, On Occasion, By Vicious Short Squeezes.
• Is Auto-Inflation The Key To Understanding Markets?
• Pro-Abortion Activists Target Homes Of Justices Kavanaugh And Roberts.
• Hedge Fund CIO: "We're On Our Own Now, Without A Fed Safety Net. It's A Sobering Reality".
• How To Kill A Zombie? Positive Real Yields Leave Record Number Of Biotechs Trading Below Cash.
• 3 American Tourists Found Dead In Mysterious "Health Emergency" At Bahamas Resort.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Weekend News Round Up.
• TME Sunday - warming up for another unchanged week?
• The World Is "Crying Out For Diesel"; Product Tankers Could Win Big.
• Duck And Cover.
• Western Banks Brace For $10 Billion Hit Over Russia Exit.
• Peak Inflation And Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors.

MarketWatch.com:       

• Will Fed go too far? Dow’s violent swings put investors on lookout for recession signals.

NewsMax:     

• Dozens Feared Dead as Russian Shell Hits Ukrainian School.
• Russia Retreats From Kharkiv, Blows Up Bridges.
• Kissinger Warns of Putin Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• George Soros Drops $1 Million Into Stacey Abrams’ Campaign for Georgia Governor.
• SURPRISE! Leadership At Joe Biden’s ‘Disinformation Governance Board’ Has Ties To George Soros. 
• Study Finds More Than 25% Increase Emergency Cardiovascular Events in 16–39 Age Group During COVID-19 Vaccination Rollout in Israel. 
• HUGE UPDATE: Tech Giants Are Censoring, Blacklisting and Banning Posts on the “2000 Mules” Ballot Trafficking Documentary Across Social Media Platforms
• Only Approved Speech Will Be Allowed: YouTube-Google Censor Judicial Watch and Newsmax over Biden Corruption Video — Lock Out Judicial Watch for a Week.
• NOTE TO STACEY ABRAMS – FIND A GOOD LAWYER: True the Vote Announces They Are Releasing Addresses of ALL Ballot Trafficking Stash Houses. 
• HERE’S WHAT’S NEXT: True the Vote Is Going to Pull the “Ripcord” – They’re Releasing ALL of Their Data – Organize Your Teams Today — And Donate to TruetheVote.org.
• Investigator Gregg Phillips: FOX’s Lawyers Are Keeping “2000 Mules” Off of the Channel (VIDEO).
• Taliban Orders Adult Afghan Women to Wear Head-to-Toe Burka in Public.
• The FDA Finally Admits that COVID-19 Should Be Treated Like the Flu.
• “At the End of the Day, We are at War… We Are at War with Russia” Democrat Lawmaker Confirms Biden Regime Has Entered a War with Nuclear-Armed Russia (VIDEO).
• Ignored by the Fake News Media: Crowd of Thousands Cheer and Roar for President Donald Trump at Kentucky Derby.
• “2000 Mules” Virtual Premiere Tonight at 8 PM ET — Documentary Reveals 2020 Election Fraud, Stolen Election.
• FBI and Democrat Leaders Ignore Leftist Hooligans Protesting Outside Homes of Conservative SCOTUS Justices — A Criminal Act with Up to 1 Year in Prison.
• Justice Kavanaugh’s Neighbor Teacher Lacie Wooten-Holway Organized the Pro-Abortion Protest Outside of His Home Saturday …Update: It was Not the First Time.
• Pro-Abortion Protesters March on Homes of Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh and Chief Justice Roberts.
• Can’t Make This Up: Fake News CNN Warns the Far Right Is Calling for Violence Following Leaked Roe v. Wade Decision… Is Chris Wray’s FBI Plotting Again?

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Eternal Spring’: The Story of 18 Brave Chinese Who Tapped Into State TV to Air Uncensored News in China.

Twitter:

• @aginnt - Bill Gates admits that shutting down schools was a bad call; it didn’t stop case growth and the education deficit will take years to recover from. Lockdown skeptics were right again and punished for it. (video)
• @zerosum24 - China and Ukraine announce partnership. This guy reportedly missed a few covid tests. (video) Shanghai Kung Pao spice. (video) “I’m the government and I’m here to help.” From Shanghai. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 813,020 Reports(+2,850 from prior week) Through April 29th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.75 +1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 83.75 +2.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.17 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,260.0 +35.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.5 +2.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.3%.
• S&P 500 futures -1.0%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/9.16
• (DUK)/1.34
• (ELAN)/.35
• (JLL)/2.14
• (RIDE)/-.45
• (THS)/-.52
• (TSN)/1.86
  

After the Close:

• (DDD)/.00
• (AMC)/-.68
• (BLNK)/-.48
• (HI)/.99
• (IAC)/-.65
• (LPSN)-.44
• (MCHP)/1.25
• (RNG)/.34
• (TREX)/.54
• (UPST)/.53
• (XPO)/.93

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a +1.7% gain in February.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Exports/Imports report, BofA Healthcare Conference, (WDC) industry analyst day and the (JKHY) analyst conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.