Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, US Dollar Weakness, Technical Buying, Commodity/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.4 -1.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,041.0 -36.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.5 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.9 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.0 +.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 +6.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 +250.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.4 -.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 488.33 +1.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.72 +1.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.51 -.89%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 297.95 +1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.68 unch.
  
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,573.62 +3.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 50.5 basis points +4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  122.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.5 +.22%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.72 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.0% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 30.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.37%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.3 -16.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.5 -4.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.1 -19.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 unch.
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 184 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -87.0%(+.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +13 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +56 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long