Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.1 -.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,236.0 +202.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.92 +.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 +3.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.02 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.08 -3.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 -52.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.08 +2.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 385.44 +1.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.49 +2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.5 +3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 290.92 +2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.21 -.68%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,730.62 +9.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.75 -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 56.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.16 -.35%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.23 -.54%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .80% -4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 42.5 (2s/10s) +5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.15 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.3 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.9 -5.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.0 +.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.87 -2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 142 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.7%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -113 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -98 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/commodity/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long