Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                       

• U.S. Homeland Chief Warns of Strain If Migration Spikes.
• China’s Lockdowns Wreak Havoc on Economy as Xi Pledges Support.   
• China Contagion Threatens to Derail the World’s Emerging Markets.
• Hungary Would Veto EU Sanctions on Russian Energy, Minister Says.
• Baerbock Says Sanctions Will Only Be Lifted After Russian Withdrawal.
  
• Ukraine Latest: Pelosi in Kyiv; Moscow Tightens Grip on Kherson.  
• Tourists, Rejoice! Italy, Greece Relax COVID-19 Restrictions.  
• Can the World Feed Itself? Historic Fertilizer Crunch Threatens Food Security.
  
• End of Easy Money Brings a $410 Billion Global Financial Shock.
• Sydney House Prices Slide Further in April as Rate Rise Looms.  
• Saudi Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in a Decade on Oil Boom.
• Stocks Face Challenging Open as Growth Fears Mount: Markets Wrap.
• These Media Stocks Have Fallen More than 50% This Year.
• Biggest Treasury Buyer Outside U.S. Quietly Offloads Billions.  
• Powell’s Fed Set to Go Big and Keep Going Until Inflation Tamed.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Pelosi Pledges to Aid Ukraine Until Victory.
• Biden Establishes a Ministry of Truth. The Disinformation Governance Board already looks like a partisan instrument.
• China’s Economy Flirts With a Recession, Threatening to Drag Down Global Growth.
• Disney’s Clash With Florida Has CEOs on Alert.
• Fed Prepares Double-Barreled Tightening With Bond Runoff.
• Americans Feel Inflation Fatigue, and Some Companies See a Breaking Point.
• For Instacart Shoppers, the Job Is Getting Harder.
• Global Supply Chain Woes Reach America’s Amish Furniture Makers.

Fox News: 

• Chaos ensues after Antifa members show up to GOP rally, understaffed police struggle to respond.
• Germany reportedly makes significant turnaround in Russian oil stance.

CNBC:

• Surging prices force consumers to ask: Can I live without it?
• Warren Buffett says inflation ‘swindles almost everybody,’ Munger rails against bitcoin, market ‘mania’.
• The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose 5.2% in March as worker pay fell behind.
• Electric boats built by GM and former SpaceX engineers could be the next big thing – take a look.
• Top Wall Street analysts are getting bullish on these stocks for the long run.

Zero Hedge:

• Study Links Increase In Emergency Heart Events With COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout.
• New COVID Bill Fines Parents For Unvaxxed Kids And Doubles Income Taxes.
• Drawdown Delerium: Bezos Warns "Markets Teach, The Lessons Can Be Painful".
• Time Columnist Denounces Free Speech As A White Man's "Obsession".
• Alarming Signs Farmers Reduce Fertilizer May Wreck Crop Yields. 
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Weekend News Round Up.
• California Expands Medi-Cal To Adults 50 And Older, Regardless Of Immigration Status.
• Buyback Blackout Period Is Over, And 10 More Reasons Why Goldman Calls The End Of The Market Carnage.
• Biden Price Hike: Most Americans Blame US President For Higher Gas Prices.
• Diesel For Dinner.
• Crisis Or Hiccup? Assessing The Logistics Impact Of China Lockdowns.
• Biden Jokes About Low Approval Ratings At Correspondents' Dinner, Says "Some Guy Named Brandon" Is Having A Really Good Year.
• The Diesel Market Is Soaring, And Gasoline Prices Will Catch Up This Summer.
• Half Of France's Nuclear Reactors Are Shutdown Amid Energy Crisis.
• The People Behind DHS's Orwellian "Disinformation Governance Board".
• CDC Reports First Human Case Of Avian Influenza.
• Michigan Investigated Hundreds Of Doctors, Nurses Over COVID-Related Complaints.
• Shanghai Ship-Jam Spells Supply Chain Trouble.
• "Not The Right Fit" - Disney Exec Who Led Anti-Florida-Bill Response Leaves Firm After 3 Months.
• Tverberg: The World Has A Major Crude Oil Problem; Expect Conflict Ahead.

MarketWatch.com:        

• AMD’s earnings outlook expected to give a clearer picture of where the chip sector is headed.
  
• Why a fragile stock market faces danger from rising real yields as ‘TINA’ trade fades.

NewsMax:      

• McCaul Warns Next Weeks 'Pivotal' In Russia's War in Ukraine.  
• Study: Half of US Doesn't Trust FBI.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• RINOs and Democrats Just Stole Future Elections in Deep Red Alaska — And the Republican Party DID NOT LIFT A FINGER to Stop It. 
• “You Can Never Think to the Future Until We Solve the Past, Because It Will Just Happen Again.” – President Trump on Those Who Want to Move On from 2020 Election. 
• Maskless Fauci Attends White House Correspondents’ Dinner Pre-Party with Masked Servants. 
• On April 21 Obama Said Social Media Censors “Don’t Go Far Enough” – 6 Days Later Puppet Joe Biden Rolls Out “Ministry of Truth”.
• “Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste” – Samantha Power Celebrates Fertilizer Shortages That will Force Farmers to Transition to “Natural Solutions” (VIDEO).
• TIME Magazine Correspondent Labels Freedom of Speech a “White Male Obsession”.
• MUST SEE: Catherine Englebrecht of True the Vote Gives a Riveting Interview on Steve Bannon’s War Room About the Massive Fraud in 2020 Election (VIDEO).
• Pfizer Announces Paxlovid is Not Effective at Preventing Covid-19 Infection Through a Household Contact — AFTER Biden Purchases 20 Million Doses.
• Palestinians Are Reportedly Destroying the Temple Mount Similar to What ISIS Did to the Arch de Triumph and Several Antiquities in Ancient Palmyra and Throughout the Region.
• Biden Laughs After Trevor Noah Roasts Him: “Since You’ve Come Into Office, Things Are Really Looking Up – Gas Is Up, Rent is Up, Food is Up!” (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Attacks Republicans, Defends Disney at White House Correspondents’ Dinner as Liberal Reporters Laugh (VIDEO).
• Moderna Seeks Emergency Use Authorization For Covid Vaccine for Children Under the Age of 6.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Regime Locks Down World’s Largest Wholesale Hub Under its Zero-COVID Policy.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 810,170 Reports(+2,929 from prior week) Through April 22nd, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 79.0 +1.5 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.41 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,979.0 +36.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.0 -.6%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures +.21%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/4.34
• (FSS)/.27
• (GPN)/2.04
• (ITRI)/.08
• (MCO)/2.89
• (ON)/1.05
• (SAIA)/2.72
  

After the Close:

• (ANET)/.81
• (CAR)/3.54
• (BXP)/1.74
• (EXPE)/-.43
• (FN)/1.52
• (MGM)/-.05
• (MOS)/2.42
• (NXPI)/3.19
• (RIG)/-.23
• (VNO)/.77
• (WMB)/.34
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for March is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.5% gain in Feb.
• ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 57.6 versus 57.1 in March.
• ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to rise to 87.7 versus 87.1 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report and the German Retail Sales report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.