Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US Dollar Weakness, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Commodity/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.7 -4.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,868.0 -8.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.22 +.85%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.9 +1.42%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.1 -5.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +36.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.20 +1.69%

• NYSE Arms .71 -77.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.20 -.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 445.03 +1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 108.50 +2.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 196.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.08 +4.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 300.40 -1.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.61 unch.
  
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12,365.3 -19.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 44.5 basis points +3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.44 +.1%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.09 +.86%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.03% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 23.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.1 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.3 -11.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.3 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.3 -4.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 -8.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 206 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.9%(+.5 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long