Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Commodities Turn Higher as China Loosens Its Virus Restrictions. 
• EU Leaders Back Push to Ban Most Russia Oil Over Putin’s War.
• Russia Readies New Bond-Payment Plan in Bid to Avoid Default.  
• Ukraine Latest: EU Backs Partial Oil Ban as Biden Shrugs Rockets.
• Israel’s Long-Delayed Sovereign Wealth Fund to Open on June 1.
• ECB’s Lane Calls Two Quarter-Point Rate Hikes ‘Benchmark Pace’.
• Biden to Meet Powell to Discuss Economy as Inflation Bites.  
• Dimensional’s ESG Boss Voices Doubts Over Investing Strategy .   
• Stocks Seen Steady Amid Inflation Woes; Oil Jumps: Markets Wrap.
• Brent Crude Hits $120 as China Eases Curbs, EU Eyes Russia Ban.
  
• Bonds Rally Everywhere in May With Bulls Saying Selloff Is Over.
• Fed Won’t Flinch as Labor Market Starts Tailing Off.
  
• US Gasoline Surges to Fresh Record in Another Blow to Drivers.  
• British Airways Staff Vote on Possible Strike Amid Staffing Woes.
• Even Children and Teenagers Are Worrying About the Cost-of-Living Crisis.

Wall Street Journal:

• Latest: French Journalist Killed.
• Oil Prices Hit Two-Month High as China Eases Lockdowns
• Summer Worker Shortage Means Things Will Be Closed. Again. 
• The Baby Formula Shortage Fall Guy. Congress beats up the FDA chief, fairly and unfairly.  
• Why Electricity Blackouts Are Coming to Michigan. The shutdown of a nuclear power plant makes the state vulnerable to cloudy, windless days. 
• Lumber Prices Slump With Rising Interest Rates.
• While Electric Vehicles Proliferate, Charging Stations Lag Behind.
• Market Slide Forces Rookie Traders to Grow Up Fast.
• Shipping Companies Added Capacity, but Now Containers Are Stuck in Port.
• Companies Rush to Cash In on EPA’s Methane Rules.

Fox News: 

• ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ crushes Memorial Day records, Tom's biggest launch.
• Former Navy SEAL on how to best honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice.
• Meet the American who makes it his life's work to honor 200,000 fallen war heroes.
• Pelosi's mega-millionaire husband arrested on DUI charge after collision. 
• Brazen thieves rob church of $2M tabernacle, decapitate angel statues.

CNBC:

• China faces a nearly $1 trillion funding gap. It will need more debt to fill it.
• Federal Reserve minutes point to more rate hikes that go further than the market anticipates.
• Fed Governor Waller is prepared to take rates past ‘neutral’ to fight inflation.
• BeReal is the latest buzzy social media app trying to go mainstream. Here’s how it works.
• The luna cryptocurrency has been resurrected after its $40 billion collapse. It’s already crashing.
• EU struggles to reach an agreement on Russian oil embargo as Hungary holds firm.

Zero Hedge:

• Kremlin Makes Announcement Amid Rumors On Putin’s Health
• Mastercard CEO: SWIFT Payment System May Be Replaced By CBDCs In Five Years.
• Key Events This Week: US Jobs, European Inflation And Tons Of Fed Speakers.
• Greece Alerts Its Tankers In Gulf After Iran Threatens More 'Retaliation' Seizures.
• Russia Plans Bond Payment System Like 'Rubles-For-Gas' Scheme To Get Around Sanctions.
• Elizabeth Warren Desperately Seeks "More" Inflation.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - European stocks and US equity futures gained but with volumes light on Memorial Day.
• As US Economic Data Crashes, Biden 'Invites' Powell To Oval Office.
• Dozens Of Border Patrol Agents Uninvited From Biden Event In Uvalde.
• A Golden Opportunity: How To Invest For The Coming Stagflation.
• Watch: Climate Activist Smashes Cake Into Mona Lisa At Louvre.
• Watch: Ted Cruz Asserts "We're Not Responding To Tragedy By Giving Up Rights".
• Pakistan On The Verge Of Inflationary Collapse - Pleads For Larger IMF Bailout.
• German Inflation Hits 60-Year-High, 'Worse To Come', Says Allianz.
• "I'm Watching": Image Of Father Standing Guard Outside Daughter's Elementary School Goes Viral.
  
• Ukraine: A New Narrative As Europe Unravels?
• "Risk Is Back In Business": Futures, Bitcoin, Oil Jump As China Eases Covid Curbs.
• Households Worldwide Wrecked By Soaring Gas Prices.
• Historically Hawkish Heritage Hits The Brakes On Ukraine Aid.
• Zelensky Signals Donbas Could Soon Fall: "Indescribably Difficult" Russian Onslaught.
• Russia Claims Control Of Key Railway Hub, Solidifying Eastern Ukraine Gains.
• Presence Of New, More Potent Opioid Growing In Canada's Illegal Drug Supply, Warns Substance-Use Research Org.

MarketWatch.com:          

• Here’s the asset investors want if inflation stays high, says Deutsche Bank. And crypto isn’t even ‘on the radar’.
  
• Brent crude hits two-month high as China lifts COVID restrictions. Analyst predicts $124/barrel is next.

NewsMax:    

• Biden Rejects Giving Ukraine Key Strategic Rocket Systems to Fight Russia.
  
• Russian, Ukrainian Troops Fight Block by Block in Key City.  
• Probe Could Shed Light on Police Lag in Response to Uvalde School Shooting.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• UPDATE: Mile-Long Line of Cars to Pick Up Baby Formula in Michigan as Biden’s Baby Formula Crisis Continues (Video). 
• WATCH: Justin Trudeau As He Announces Canada’s Proposed Legislation to Ban Handguns.
• SoCal Doctor Who Smuggled, Sold Hydroxychloroquine as Covid Cure Sentenced to Prison.
• One Of The Largest Egg Factories In US Torched In The Middle Of The Night Amid Outbreak Of Fires In Food Processing Facilities Across The Nation.
• US Medical Company Sues Chinese Manufacturer Over 100,000+ Defective COVID Tests with False Positive Results.
• Joe Biden Suggests He Wants to Ban “High Caliber” 9mm Handguns (VIDEO).
• The Biden Administration Is Exploiting Poor Kids To Further Transgender Policies.
• Confirmed: ‘True the Vote’ to Present Findings of Ballot Harvesting in Yuma and Maricopa Counties to Arizona Lawmakers on Tuesday at 3 PM.
• US Parents Travel to Tijuana to Purchase Baby Formula as Biden Baby Formula Crisis Worsens – Out-of-Stock Rate Hits 70% (VIDEO).
• WATCH: Fox News Pundits Demand Gun Control, Call Republicans the ‘Party of Egregious Mass Shootings and Uncontrolled Guns’.
• Virginia Parents Protest Policy Changes That Expand Discipline For Students Who “Misgender” Or “Deadname” Other Students.
• Travel Hell: More Canceled Flights Pile Up on Memorial Day Weekend – 5,260 Canceled Flights as of Sunday Evening.
• 2000 Mules Investigator Gregg Phillips To FOX News: “It’s One Thing that You Chose to Stay Silent While 2000 Mules Went Viral – It’s an Entirely Different Matter that You Have Chosen to Lie to the World”…”Game on Boys and Girls” [VIDEO].
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 817,537 Reports(+4,517 from prior week) Through May 13th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 67.5 -5.0 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.28 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,308.0 +116.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.8 -.18%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures +.51%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (AMBA)/.37
• (HPQ)/1.05
• (CRM)/.94
• (VSCO)/.84
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.1% gain in Feb.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +2.39% gain in Feb.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for May is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 56.4 in April.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May is estimated to fall to 103.7 versus 107.3 in April.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for May is estimated to rise to 1.5 versus 1.1 in April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Non-Manufacturing PMI report, Jefferies Software Conference and the KeyBanc Industrials/Basic Materials Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.