Wednesday, July 12, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge: 
Wall Street Journal:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.0 -2.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 60.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.7 +.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.8 +.06%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 -.30%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on More Dovish Fed Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Dollar Weakness, Metals & Mining/Regional Bank Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -7.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.8 -.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 162.3 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.2 -9.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -29.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 +2.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.47 +101.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.8 -3.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.9 -1.5%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 375.0 +12.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.5 -4.5% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 266.73 -4.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.7 -2.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 207.07 -2.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.89 +.35%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 716.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.71 +.53%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.6 euros/megawatt-hour  -8.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.7 -4.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -134.5 +1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.9 +3.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) -20.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.55 +.05:  Growth Rate +3.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 215.97 +.39: Growth Rate +41.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 35.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.15 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -88.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.29% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% -16.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.35% +13.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 78.8%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 64.6%(+10.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +166 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -16 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +85 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers -1.5% 2) Cybersecurity -1.5% 3) Airlines -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • RBLX, U, FCN, MASI, ELV, COIN, AFYA, ACHC, CNC, RDFN, ZS, AYX, NET, PANW, PTGX, CSTL and SILK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) LNC 2) IQ 3) DVA 4) COTY 5) MCHP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SILK 2) RDFN 3) CNC 4) LCID 5) CSCO
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Gold & Silver +4.5% 2) Regional Banks +2.1% 3) Homebuilding +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RXRX, DPZ, CVNA, SPWR, SDGR, MTW, MOD, EXPI, DUOL, TSE, DKNG and YETI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) INMD 2) SPWR 3) OPCH 4) IGT 5) LAZR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SPWR 2) LPSN 3) CVNA 4) DKNG 5) INMD

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CTAS)/3.19
  • (CAG)/.60
  • (DAL)/2.40
  • (FAST)/.53
  • (PEP)/1.96
  • (PGR)/.84
After the Close: 
  • (WAFD)/.94
Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

  • PPI Final Demand MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in May.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in May.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 250K versus 248K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated at 1720K versus 1720K prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • The Monthly Budget Deficit for June is estimated at -$184.0B versus -$88.8B in May.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Weller speaking, China Import/Export Prices, 30Y T-Bond auction and the weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +2.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.5 +.1
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 81.4% of Issues Advancing, 16.6% Declining
  • 192 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
  • 57.0%(+4.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +6.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.3 +.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,313.6 +.44%
  • 1-Day Vix 8.7 -45.5%
  • Vix 13.8 -7.3% 
  • Total Put/Call .74 +1.4%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.29 +76.7%