Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to -3 versus -5 in Nov.

10:30 am EST

  • The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Dec.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Industrial Production report, 5Y T-Note auction, API weekly crude oil stock report and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -34.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.5 +10.2
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 68.3% of Issues Advancing, 28.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.08 -5.3% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$93.8M
  • 124 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
  • 66.1%(+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 70.0 unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.3 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.4 +.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,403.2 -.14%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 79.0 (Extreme Greed) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.31 -27.1%
  • Vix 13.6 +4.4%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -8.1%

Monday, December 25, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading

  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 138.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.72 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.7 +1.8%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 +.1%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, December 23, 2023

Today's Headlines

X:

OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, December 22, 2023

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:
Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

Reuters:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Epoch Times:

OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,755.5 +.80%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 37,394.7 +.28%
  • NASDAQ 14,991.4 +1.2%
  • Russell 2000 2,035.0 +2.5%
  • NYSE FANG+ 8,729.9 +1.4% 
  • Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 444.9 +5.7%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 162.7 +1.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 47,669.9 +.94%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,049.3 +.95%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,622.19 +.75%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 754.17 +.61%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.06 +.25%
  • NYSE Technology 4,310.2 +.74%
  • Transports 16,080.1 +.37%
  • Utilities 874.57 -.87%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 91.0 +.94%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.29 -1.6%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 192.99 +2.5%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 106.84 +.82%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 473,220 +.43%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 +101.9%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 259 -1,604
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.9 +10.4%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 151,599 -10.3%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,645,245 -.01%
  • Total Put/Call .84 +1.3%
  • OEX Put/Call .95 -41.9%
  • ISE Sentiment 137.0 -8.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.28 -24.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.5 -3.3%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.27 -67.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.4 +8.6%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing n/a
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 20.4 +10.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.07 -1.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.83 -1.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,238.6 -1.69%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  97.3 +19.3
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.870 Trillion -.3%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$11.073 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 52.9 +3.1%
  • AAII % Bears 20.9 +8.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 78.0(Extreme Greed) -2.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 266.08 +.38%
  • Crude Oil 73.73/bbl. +2.65%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 213.55 +.13%
  • Natural Gas 2.59 +5.59%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.17 euros/megawatt-hour +2.97%
  • Heating Oil 266.52 +1.6% 
  • Newcastle Coal 141.3 (1,000/metric ton) -1.9%
  • Gold 2,053.61 +1.70%
  • Silver 24.15 +1.3%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 414.04 +.02%
  • Copper 389.60 +.43%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 423.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 138.1 USD/Metric Tonne +4.3%
  • CME Lumber  560.0 +3.3%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,509.98 -1.8%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 322.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q Forecast +2.68% +7.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.36 +18.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 161.3 +207.0%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +13.5% +1.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.75 +.42:  Growth Rate +11.3% +1.9 percentage points, P/E 19.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.93 -5.31: Growth Rate +35.0% -2.5 percentage points, P/E 30.4 +1.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.2 +4.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.9 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.3 -1.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 14.5%(+14.2 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 85.5%(-4.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 1/31
  • US Dollar Index 101.79 -.78%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,724.38 -.11%
  • Bitcoin/USD 43,719.3 +4.40%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.50 +1.44%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -43.0 +11.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.90% -2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.688 Trillion -.2% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.185 Billion +6.2%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $131.335 Billion +6.1%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.84 -.16%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 169.90 +.91%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 -13.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.412 -.66%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.89 +.59%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 133.22 -3.4%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 110.0 +.99%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.76 -1.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.05 -6.8%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 78.84 +1.2%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.1% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.1% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% -.41 percentage point: CPI YoY +3.33% -.05 percentage point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 27.0 +1.25 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.0 -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.56 -3.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 164.0 -3.1
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 319.0 -55.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.13 -.66%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 208.90 +1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 166.84 -3.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 963.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 -3.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.3% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,262.2 +1.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,000 -.7%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.1 -1.0%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.06% -15.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 191,600 -1.49%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +3.30% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -2.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $117.4M -13.1%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.13/gallon +.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,087.0 -11.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 879.75 +1.2%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 35.8 -5.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 268,134 -.57%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,638,639 +17.4%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +2.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Shipping +9.1%
  • Steel +4.9%
  • Digital Health +3.2%
  • Airlines +3.1%
  • Energy +2.9%
Lagging Sectors
  • Electric Vehicles -1.0%
  • Regional Banks -1.0%
  • Agriculture -1.0%
  • Video Gaming -2.1%
  • Social Media -2.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)
  • KRTX, NMRA, HUT, ANSS, MARA, ALTR, RYZB, RIOT, AXSM, PLSE, NBIX, IEP, COIN, BROS and LQDA
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)
  • SAVA, TTD, CROX, MIRM, TAL, EDU, SMCI, BILI, LGF, RILY, AIR, NKE, NTES and MULN
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change