Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.9% 2) Gold & Silver -1.8% 3) Telecom -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLNT, APA, LNG, VITL, BNL, TFX, KTOS, EXAS, AHH, TNK, NEM, PGNY, BLZE, ETSY, DRVN, TBI, PRG, FIVN, FLNC, WEAV, FVRR, LUNG, GSHD and RIVN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HUN 2) NVAX 3) FLNC 4) XLI 5) ETSY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RIVN 2) LCID 3) FLNC 4) NOVA 5) GSHD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +3.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +7.1% 2) Semis +5.3% 3) Computer Hardware +5.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MATV, SMCI, GCT, AMLX, RXRX, RCUS, OUT, ACVA, FCN, RELY, RILY, MRNA, NVDA, TNDM, IBP, CLS, WES, AMD, LNTH, NICE, CNNE, ICLR, ACMR, ERF, PWR, WING, DELL, TS, QTWO, UCTT, VAC, ARM, CAMT, YPF, FROG, BMA, CRSP, ENOV, SNPS, RCL, NTR, HUN, W, CRTO, FTI, COHR, ZS, NMRK, TCOM, IRM, GNK, VRT, DOCN, NGVT, MOS, FIHL, ANET, BLCO, CAVA, PANW, LAMR, TNL, CYBR, VAL, CART, IQV, BIDU, WK, CUK, LZ, CAKE, BYON, NOW and BALY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALIT 2) XLI 3) AMLX 4) NICE 5) FLR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVDA 2) SMCI 3) OUT 4) AMD 5) SNPS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BLMN)/.69
• (LAMR)/7.44
• (SSP)/.15
• (WBD)/-.10
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (WMT) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BMO Metals/Mining/Critical Minerals Conference and the (CSCO) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 +.8
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 62.9% of Issues Advancing, 35.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 +50.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$189.3M
  
• 181 New 52-Week Highs, 33 New Lows
• 59.2% (+.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 73.3 +3.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 139.5 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,388.5 +2.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 78.0 (Greed) +11.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.0 -38.6%
  
• Vix 14.3 -7.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 -13.8%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 -2.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 64.0 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.3 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.3 +1.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.8 -3.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.71%

• S&P 500 futures +.68%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.41%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Energy/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(416 of 500 reporting) +4.8% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 246.28 +.12:  Growth Rate +11.2% unch., P/E 20.2 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.18% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 308.54 +.45: Growth Rate +44.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 30.9 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -11.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .38 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 562% +2.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.11% +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 69.2%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 53.2%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +78 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long