Economic Gauges:
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(416 of 500 reporting) +4.8% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 246.28 +.12: Growth Rate +11.2% unch., P/E 20.2 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.18% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 308.54 +.45: Growth Rate +44.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 30.9 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -11.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .38 -7.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 562% +2.4 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.11% +5.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 69.2%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 53.2%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +78 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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