Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Declining Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Worries, Alt Energy/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.8 +13.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.17 +72.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.8 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.5 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.8 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.5 +12.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -6.0
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -16.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.28 +60.0% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$531.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.3 +3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 310.4 +.19%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 309 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.4 -.18% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 209.7 +.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.4 +.19%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.9 +3.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 114.5 -.02%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 839.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.3 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.3 +1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .2 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(351 of 500 reporting) +5.3% +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.55 +.19:  Growth Rate +10.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 -.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.27% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.93 +1.53: Growth Rate +43.4% +.7 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -33.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.4% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.8% +.9 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% +8.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.06% +12.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 63.9%(+24.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 51.7%(+9.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -384 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -76 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long