Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Presidential Election Credibility Worries, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 +6.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .68 +57.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.9 -3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.80 -.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 +.29%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.0 -.76% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 147.0 -2.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 +32.1%

• NYSE Arms .79 -50.9% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$103.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.78 -1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 310.86 +.73%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 315 -17
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.5 -1.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 209.0 -4.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.2 -.08%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.75 +.23%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 114.4 -7.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.59 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 153.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 839.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.4 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.7 euros/megawatt-hour -5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.3 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.0 +1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(335 of 500 reporting) +5.1% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.36 +.21:  Growth Rate +10.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.27% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 304.40 +1.02: Growth Rate +42.7% +.5 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .91 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -30.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.4% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 58.9% -.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.94% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 52.1%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 43.5%(unch.) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +557 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +48 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long