Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Escalating China Trade Tensions, Trump Taiwan Comments, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.9 +5.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.4 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.5 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(44 of 500 reporting) +8.5% -3.7 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.68 +.01:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.4 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.61 +.13: Growth Rate +24.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.5 -1.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .86 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% +71.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.5% -.7 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 59.9%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -857 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +132 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -5.9% 2) Alt Energy -3.7% 3) Computer Hardware -3.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MMYT, UPST, NUVL, OMC, AR, ICUI, CORZ, MANH, META, FHN, LPLA, ELV, NTRS, ANF, CCJ, CDNS, JBHT, TSM, APH, SCHW, UCTT, MLTX, IREN, LRCX, LQDA, GEV, CAMT, SMR, CRDO, TLN, LXEO, AMSC, ASML, VKTX, GPCR, FIVE and FDMT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLB 2) NXE 3) FIVE 4) BSX 5) CARR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FIVE 2) SAVE 3) AVGO 4) AMAT 5) TWOU
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLB 3) XOP 4) COPX 5) XHB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +1.9% 2) Foods +1.7% 3) Insurance +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AEHR, VFC, GTLB, NFE, CLBT, GFS, INDV, HSIC, HE, USB, UNH, GTES, JNJ, NBR, PNFP, CFG, FULT and MXL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AUR 2) XLB 3) FIVE 4) AR 5) AEHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ANGO 2) ADTX 3) VFC 4) PRPO 5) UNH
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) KRE 5) SOXX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/1.11
• (ALK)/2.38
• (BKU)/.65
• (CTAS)/3.79
• (DHI)/3.75
• (DPZ)/3.66
• (KEY)/.25
• (MTB)/3.51
• (MAN)/1.27
• (MMC)/2.40
• (SNA)/4.93
  

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/.86
• (ISRG)/1.54
• (NFLX)/4.74
• (PPG)/2.48
• (WAL)/1.71
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 229K versus 222K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1856K versus 1852K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for July is estimated to rise to 2.9 versus 1.3 in June. 
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for June is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.5% decline in May.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (WMS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 -2.1
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 42.3% of Issues Advancing, 51.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 +8.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$236.7M
  
• 125 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Low
• 68.4% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 74.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.4 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.7 -1.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,126.8 -2.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 +8.1%
  
• Vix 14.2 +7.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -1.3%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Classic Hedge Fund Trade Is a Winner in China’s Two-Speed Market.
• China Stainless Steel Mogul Fights to Avoid a Second Collapse.
• Asian Stocks Rise on Optimism for Fed Rate Cut: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Halts Run of Losses on Estimate for US Crude Inventory Draw.
• Trump on What He’d Do With Taxes, Tariffs, Jerome Powell and More.
• Riskiest Stocks Begin an Epic Rotation With Rate Cuts in Sight.
• S&P 500’s $18 Trillion Rally Is ‘Broadening Out’.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:  

• Ron Paul: Why We'll Never Know What Really Happened In Butler, PA.
• Widow Of Trump Rally Victim Refuses Biden's Phone Call.
• Top Five Reasons J.D. Vance Is The Perfect VP Pick.
• These Are The World's 10 Most Valuable 'Unicorns'.
• Equal Versus Equitable.
• Auto Insider Warns More Americans Fall Behind On Car Payments As Repos Soar 23%.
• VDH: Assassination Porn & The Sickness On The Left.
• Quinn: "They" Will Do Anything To Win.
• Hedge Funds Boost Bearish Bets On Corn To Record.
• Visualizing The G7's Declining Share Of Global GDP.
• S&P 500 and DJIA extended on record highs following better-than-expected Retail Sales data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Texas AG Appeals Ruling On Nonprofit Accused Of Facilitating Illegal Immigration.
• Former Snipers Agree: It's A Miracle Trump Is Still Alive.
• "This Is The Final Straw": Musk Announces SpaceX Moving From CA To Texas After Newsom Passes Anti-Parent Gender Law.
• Stocks extend on gains as RUT outperforms again, as hot Retail Sales reaction reverses - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Gold Soars To Record High As Stocks Do Something Not Seen Since Oct 1987.
• "Staged Theatrics To Win Idiots' Vote": Virginia Prof Declares Trump Shooting Was Faked.

Wall Street Journal:

• Musk Turbocharges Silicon Valley Support for Trump.
• The Trump Shooting Exposed Deeper Risks. Even after the assassination attempt, the leaders of our eroding institutions have no answer or just look the other way.
• Security Detail for Ex-Top Trump Official Denied by Biden Administration.
• Mystery Around Trump Shooter Deepens.

CNBC.com:

• Small caps are the hottest trade going in the stock market now and they surged another 3% Tuesday.
• Traders see the odds of a Fed rate cut by September at 100%.
• House Democrats circulate letter urging DNC not to rush Biden nomination.
• Andreessen Horowitz founders plan to donate to pro-Trump super PACs.
• Elon Musk says SpaceX, X headquarters moving to Texas, blames California trans student privacy law.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Five Below, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt and more. 
• Royal Caribbean leans into shorter cruises, more experiences to capture travel demand.

MarketWatch.com: 

• 20 value stocks with high dividend yields and expected room to raise payouts.
• Five Below’s stock tumbles on CEO departure and downbeat forecast.
• Wall Street pivots back to multiple-rate-cut view — reviving one of 2024’s big trading themes.
• Biden proposes nationwide rent cap to lower housing costs. Experts say it’s counterproductive.

Fox News:

• Donald Trump Jr. details role he wants if his dad is re-elected president.
• Secret Service director faces new heat for reason why Trump shooter's roof left unsecured.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Computer Model Shows Just How Close Bullet Was to Hitting Trump’s Skull – Last Millisecond Head Tilt Saved His Life (VIDEO).
• Amber Rose Slams ‘Race Baiter’ Joy Reid After She Gets Triggered By Her Trump Endorsement.
• The Company Building Where Trump Shooter Sniped From Was Sold Four Months Ago.
• FIREWORKS! Matt Gaetz Gets In Kevin McCarthy’s Face at RNC Convention (VIDEO).
• Trump Announces First Rally with VP Nominee J.D. Vance Will Take Place in Michigan on Saturday.
• PEACEMAKERS: Orbán Writes to EU Leaders That Trump ‘Has Detailed and Well-Founded Plans’ to End the War in Ukraine.
• Highly Anticipated Steve Bannon Documentary to Premiere at RNC: GOVERNMENT GANGSTERS — The Deep State… Now The Deep Truth.
• Powerful: Democrat Moved to Tears By Speakers at RNC “It’s Just So Beautiful”.
• HERE WE GO: Democrats Renew Push to Oust Joe Biden, Sabotage DNC’s Plan For Early ‘Virtual Roll Call’.
• WTH?? Secret Service Now Saying They Didn’t Put Any Agents on the Roof Because Slight Slope Was Too Dangerous.
• Brazilian Model and Influencer Who Became a Sex Trafficker and Enslaver, Kat Torres Sentenced to Eight Years in Prison for Luring Young Women to the US ‘for Sexual Exploitation’.
• ABLECHILD: Is FBI Already Stonewalling on the Investigation into the Assassination Attempt?
• Far-Left Jack Black, Who Laughed as His Bandmate Joked ‘Don’t Miss Trump Next Time,’ Abruptly Cancels Tour After Australian Senator Calls for Band’s Deportation.

The Epoch Times:

• VP Pick Vance: China the Biggest Threat to the US.

Around X:

• @SprinterFamily

• Former President Donald Trump reappears with his ear bandaged before Republicans in Milwaukee, for the first time since his assassination attempt on Saturday. (video)

• @RenzTom

• BREAKING: According to the New York Times Thomas Matthew Crooks has no criminal record but according to the FBI he had no ID so they identified him using DNA and biometric data. Why and how does the government have access to the DNA and biometric data of someone that isn’t a criminal? Is this an admission that the government has DNA and biometric data on all our most Americans?

• @robbystarbuck
  

• These are photos from John Deere for pride month. One flag wasn’t enough. They had a LOT of flags, including some I’ve never seen before. Not enough farmers know how much they love to fly flags showing what kind of sex you like @JohnDeere. Spread the word so they know! John Deere’s CEO wants you to know that they’re DEFINITELY NOT pushing any social values though and they’re definitely not activists. (pic)
  

• @MikeBenzCyber

• No social media history, no cell phone information, no communications record, and a complete information black hole about the man who shot the President of the United States in broad daylight. I spoke w/@ChanelRion about the billows of cover-up smoke coming from our DHS & FBI. (video)

• @JDunlap1974

• Georgia’s election board now admits to violations of election law in 2020. It’s over for the election fraud deniers. (video)

• @kylenabecker
  

• BOMBSHELL. Thomas Matthew Crooks, the 20-year-old gunman who attempted to assassinate former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, was spotted on the roof 26 minutes before the shooting occurred. The FBI has confirmed that Crooks was seen by law enforcement members from the Allegheny County Police Department on the roof of a building with a clear sightline to the former president. Despite being alerted to his presence, authorities failed to confront him, allowing him to remain hidden for nearly 30 minutes before he opened fire on Trump and the crowd.
• NEW UNSEEN FOOTAGE. Secret Service and state police were in a mad scramble after the Trump assassination attempt to get the reactionary squad through a fence to get to the former president. (video)

• @CollinRugg
  

• JUST IN: CNN host loses it after former US Army sn*per Cory Mills suggests the July 13 assas*ination attempt on Trump *could have been* a setup. Holy sh*t. Mills explained how everything about the incident made no sense. CNN anchor Kate Bolduan was visibly stunned and desperately tried to combat Mills' statements. (video)
• NEW: Dan Bongino says an "unimpeachable source" tells him that someone was supposed to be on the roof where Thomas Crooks shot from but "didn't show up." Bongino also claimed that the Biden admin is telling the USSS director to keep her mouth shut if she wants to keep her job. (video)
  

• @MarioNawful
  

• BREAKING: BIDEN EYES MAJOR SUPREME COURT AND IMMUNITY REFORMS. Biden is reportedly considering endorsement of significant Supreme Court reforms and changes to presidential immunity. Sources say Biden may support term limits for justices, an ethics code for the high court, and a constitutional amendment to eliminate presidential immunity.

• @WallStreetApes

• The Donald Trump Assassination Attempt Was The Bullet That Woke Up The Younger Generation. This Girl Believed All The Lies, Now She’s Awake.

• @VigilantNews

• Police Snipers Were INSIDE Building Used by Trump Shooter, Had Eyes on Him and Even Took Pictures But nothing was done until Crooks shot Trump. Why?

• @WallStreetSilv
  

• “If Trump becomes President again in 2024…it will be the final death blow…to the Global Order…” - WEF’s Yuval Noah Harari Advisor to Klaus Schwab. (video)

• @KatieDaviscourt

• This might be the best media interruption I have ever seen. (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Something stinks about the whole Trump assassination attempt, and two of the world's top minds can smell it. Dr. Peter McCullough and John Leake have conducted a 1-hour deep dive and what they uncovered is alarming. Here's a summary of the anomalies they found:

• @songpinganq
  

• Spend “frivolously” and be penalized under China’s new social credit system. People who waste money on non-essentials or behave “badly” are penalized under the controversial new ranking.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,012,894 Reports(+1,222 from prior report) Through June 28th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.75 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 60.75 +2.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.7 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.