Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.14%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.58% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 108.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.9 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.4 +3.6 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.1 +9.2 basis points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.2 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +18.4% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.92 +.73: Growth Rate +14.3% unch., P/E 21.4 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.22 +.20: Growth Rate +28.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 +7.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .75 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 13.75 basis point (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.1 -2.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 45.0%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.8%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +115 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +923 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +119 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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