Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Port Strike/Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Escalating Mid-East Regional War Fears, Hurricane Response Debacle, Tech/Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.3 +9.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .76 +40.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.1 -3.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.0 -.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.3 +7.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 137.0 +9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -3.4%

• NYSE Arms .78 -23.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$4.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.7 +1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 337.1 -.08%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 255 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.8 +1.0%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 177.9 +.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 +.07%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.3 +.49%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 156.4 +3.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 +.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -29.25 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 128.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 714.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.43%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.59% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.6 +3.4 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -48.1 +8.7 basis points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 +1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +24.9% -2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.95 +.35:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.85 +.16: Growth Rate +28.1% unch., P/E 30.8 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 +13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 12.25 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% -54.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.2 -1.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 48.9%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 45.6%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -362 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +182 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/utility sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long