Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FLO)/.33
• (MSGE)/-.53
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1333K versus 1353K in June.
• Building Permits for July is estimated to fall to 1425K versus 1464K in June. 
• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Aug. is estimated to rise to 66.9 versus 66.4 in July.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for Aug. is estimated at +2.9% versus estimates of a +2.9% gain in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow update, CFTC net speculative positioning reports and the US Baker Hughes rig count could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 -1.4
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 74.0% of Issues Advancing, 24.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .65 -46.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$300.2M
  
• 108 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 57.6% (+7.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +5
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.0 +6.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.2 +1.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,931.6 +.65%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (FEAR) +7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.6 -21.1%
  
• Vix 15.4 -5.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 +10.2%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Iran Suspense Grows as Israel and Its Allies Brace for Attack.
• How Israel-Hamas War Tests Campus Tolerance of Speech.
• Asian Stocks Edge Higher as CPI Calms Wall Street. 
• Oil Halts Two-Day Drop as Iran Tensions Vie With Stockpile Build.
• Fed’s Goolsbee Says He’s Growing More Concerned About Employment.
• Apple Pushes Ahead With Tabletop Robot in Search of New Revenue.
• Hedge Funds Add Apple, Reshuffle Technology Portfolio.
• Core US Inflation Eases a Fourth Month, Sealing Fed Rate Cut.
• Columbia May Face Subpoena by House Panel in Antisemitism Probe. 

Zerohedge:  

• Taliban Flexes US Weapons In Military Parade, Left Behind By Biden-Harris' Botched Afghan Exit.
• Human Rights Lawyer: Olympic Boxer's "Cyberbullies" Lawsuit A Threat To Free Speech.
• FTC Says Google Antitrust Ruling Goes Beyond Epic Games, Hints Tech 'Monopolist' Should Be Broken Up.
• Vote Integrity's Nitty-Gritty: The Battle Lines Of '24's Epic Struggle.
• Don't Let Washington Do To Airlines What It Did To Amtrak.
• China Port Explosion Snarls Trans-Pacific Container Trade.
• "Would It Kill You Guys?" CNN Gets Confrontational With Harris SPOX For Avoiding Interviews, Press Conferences.
• WHO Declares Monkeypox "Global Health Emergency" - Again.
• US stocks were mixed after mostly in line US CPI - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Let The American People Have Autonomy Over Their Automobiles.
• Russia Ready To Execute Nuclear Attacks On NATO Targets, According To Leaked Documents.
• Pentagon Belatedly Reveals 8 US Troops Were Wounded In Syria Attack Last Week.
• The Shiny New Kamala Harris That Propaganda Built.
• Bullion, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Battered But Sanguine CPI Slams Leaves Stocks & Bonds Confused.

Wall Street Journal:

• How the Inflation Goal Posts Have Moved. The White House hails ‘progress’ as prices keep rising.
• The Dramatic Turnaround in Millennials’ Finances.
• Inside Starbucks’s Surprising CEO Firing and Hiring.
• Kamala Harris Will Pay You Not to Work. She has endorsed several measures that resemble Universal Basic Income.
• In Israel, Support Grows for Offensive Against Hezbollah.
• The Fight Against DEI Programs Shifts to Medical Care.
• So Much About Real-Estate Commissions Just Changed. Here’s What to Know.
• Kamala Harris’s Working-Class Tip-Off. Democrats show signs of real worry about their ticket’s weakness with working-class voters.

CNBC.com:

• Japan second-quarter GDP beats expectations, expands 0.8% from previous quarter.
• Starbucks is giving incoming CEO Brian Niccol $85 million in cash and stock as he departs Chipotle.
• Columbia University president quits, months after handling of Gaza war protests.
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for July 2024.

MarketWatch.com:

• Nvidia stock turns around. Here’s what’s driving shares.
• Why Warren Buffett’s Berkshire likely saw shine in Ulta’s beaten-down stock.
• George Soros’s fund places new bets on Apple, Broadcom.
• Alzheimer’s risk may be sharply reduced with these cheap drugs, research shows.
• Cisco to cut 7% of workforce, stock pops as AI spurs order growth. 
• Mortgage rates fall for a second week in a row — and refis soar 117%.

Fox News:

• Last Denny's in blue city closes its doors due to dine-and-dashers.
• Nate Silver: There will be more surprises, polls have underestimated Trump.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Nation’s Top Hackers at DEF CON Conference Once Again Easily Breach U.S. Voting Machines — Yet Republicans Continue to Ignore This Crisis Year After Year.
• Andrew McCarthy: Prepare for Judge Juan Merchan to Sentence Trump to Prison Trump on Sept. 18 – Two Months Before Election.
• Man Impersonating Secret Service Agent Spotted Checking Backpacks at JD Vance Event in Detroit.
• OUCH! White House Says Kamala Harris is Responsible For Dumpster Fire Economy and Inflation as She Tries to Distance Herself From ‘Bidenomics’ (VIDEO).
• WATCH: New Video From January 6 Shows Police Officer Carrying a Bag Toward Location of DNC “Pipe Bomb” 15 Minutes Before ‘Explosive Device’ Was Discovered.
• Socialist Bernie Sanders Breaks Silence and Exposes Democrat ‘Establishment’ for Allegedly Sabotaging His Presidential Bid: “That’s What Happens When You Take on the Establishment”.
• Here We Go: Pro-China World Health Organization Declares Monkeypox Outbreak a Global Health Emergency Just Months Before Presidential Election (VIDEO).
• “Would It Kill You Guys to Have a Press Conference?” – CNN’s Jim Acosta Asks Kamala’s Spox Why Harris is Dodging the Press After Pushing Biden Out (VIDEO).
• Google Blames ‘Glitch’ For How Harris Campaign Was Able to Run Paid Ads with Fake Headlines to Deceive Voters.
• Should Men Compete in Women’s Sports? ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit Says ‘Of Course Not’ and He’s ‘Done Giving Any Sh***’ About Pushback (Video).
• Report: Border Agents Told To Turn In Family and Co-workers Over Election Beliefs.
• This Explains All the Fake News Attacks: 70% of Audience Sharing Musk-Trump Interview Was from 25-35 Age Group.
• Under Biden, More Government Jobs Than Factory Jobs.
• Anti-Trump Pollster Frank Luntz Stuns CNN Panel — Admits Trump is Winning Over Union Workers Like No Republican in Decades.

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Makes More Promises on the Ailing Economy, but Offers No Solutions.
• China Prepares to Raise Retirement Age Amid Aging Population and Unemployment Crisis.

Around X:

• @Kylenabecker

• JUST IN: The Harris-Biden administration is reportedly using taxpayer funds to hide Medicare premium hikes from voters before the election. Voters over the age of 65 should pay close attention to the CON GAME the Harris campaign is running on them with taxpayer dollars. "In a move critics say is designed to shield the Biden-Harris administration from election fallout, the administration has leveraged taxpayer funds to mask upcoming increases in Medicare premiums," Fox News reported.
• Here are the biggest organizations in the United States. The HUGE Blue Bubbles are Democratic Party donors. The TINY Red Bubbles are Republican Party donors. (pic)
• On closer inspection, Kamala is *COOKED.* The hype is not real. Dems are getting slaughtered on voter registrations. Pollsters keep oversampling Dems for no damn reason except deceiving voters. It's all designed to try to keep Harris within the MOC (Margin of Cheat*ng). (pic)
  

• @dom_lucre

• BREAKING: Yet ANOTHER TikToc star has exposed Kamala Harris for offering to pay for social media support, it appears Harris has started taking a more hidden approach after being exposed before, she is now allegedly forcing influencers to sign a NDA prior to getting paid. Influencer: “I received an email for a paid promotion for me to make a video and post it on TikTok talking about the Democratic side.” (video)

• @CollinRugg
  

• JUST IN: Every American's Social Security number may have been stolen in a new hack, with 2.7 billion records allegedly stolen. Hacking group 'USDoD' claims they have stolen 2.7 billion records of Americans' personal information. The personal information includes Social Security numbers and physical addresses.

• @WallStreetSilv

• Sharia law in the UK. You are no longer allowed to blasphemy any aspect of IsIam in the UK. They don’t enforce the same laws for Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism or any other religion. It is only insulting MusIims that will get you sent to jail. (pic)
  

• @glennbeck
  

• If we lose this election, I truly believe we’ve lost the country. America will still exist, but under a socialist Harris/Walz administration, we may not make it as a constitutional republic to 2026. If they could throw @elonmusk and @realDonaldTrump in jail, they would. If they could silence our free speech like in the EU or UK, they would. This is our Chavez moment, America. (video)

• @Overton_News
  

• WATCH: Taliban Marks Third Anniversary of Afghanistan Takeover with Military Parade Showcasing Weaponry and Equipment Left Behind by Joe Biden Bagram, Afghanistan. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• For Those Wondering How The Mainstream Continues To Stay In Business, This Is How. Patrick Bet-David - Big Pharma is keeping Cable TV in business. 75% of ad revenue on cable television comes from the Pharmaceutical Industry. ‌ America is 1 of 2 Countries in the Entire World that Allow Pharmaceutical Ads on TV. (video)

• @BoLoudon

• BREAKING: THE LINE FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP'S RALLY IN DEEP BLUE ASHEVILLE, NC IS MILES LONG! This video was taken over FOUR HOURS before Trump's speech at 4PM EST. NO TWERKING RAPPERS NEEDED! Kamala definitely doesn't want you to share this! (video)

• @WarClandestine

• Just to be clear: Monkeypox or bird flu don’t actually have to be legitimate threats in order for the Deep State to accomplish their goals. They just need an excuse to put more mail-in ballots in circulation. They just need a “global health emergency” on paper, in order to enact emergency powers and Democrat governors can send out millions of mail-in ballots to every registered voter. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,013,375 Reports(+481 from prior report) Through August 2nd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.75 -2.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 64.25 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.04 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.7 +3.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 +.23%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Declining Inflation Expectations, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High Yld Debt Angst, Financial/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.6 -8.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .79 -8.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 50.4 +14.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.59 +.48%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.60 -1.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.7 -7.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 151.0 +13.0
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -10.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.24 +17.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$3.71M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.2 -2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 315.1 -1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 265 +4
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.3 -3.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 178.1 -2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.1 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.4 -1.8%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 143.9 +.01%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -13.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 710.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.07 +.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.20% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.05%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.0 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.0 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.0 -1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.9 +1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) +9.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.18 -.19:  Growth Rate +15.8% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.73% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 342.16 -.06: Growth Rate +27.6% unch., P/E 32.1 +.04
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .64 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -13.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.91% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 73.1% +3.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.64% -9.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.60% -41.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 46.0%(-4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 44.0%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -117 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -55 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.2% 2) Digital Health -1.2% 3) Steel -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GLBE, BTU, HCC, FNV and EAT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HL 2) K 3) SERV 4) JETS 5) CLOV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MGNX 2) VICR 3) CXM 4) BKKT 5) MRNA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XOP 2) PSCE 3) XLI 4) IGV 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) I-Banking +2.0% 2) Insurance +1.8% 3) Telecom +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MRCY, SIGA, VSCO, MRX, INTA, CNTA, ANAB, SERV, QFIN, NFE, FLUT, K, PFGC, LPLA, XP, GEO, CRGX, SPHR, FOUR, UBS, VRT, NU, HG, SCHW, APP, GFI, RACE, NICE, GGAL, CAH, HRTG, TEVA, HA, TLN, MAX and SILA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GRAB 2) BTU 3) ROIV 4) SERV 5) UBS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DGLY 2) MRCY 3) EDBL 4) QFIN 5) MRX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) SOXX 3) XLF 4) ARKK 5) KRE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume