Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Diminished US Trade Tensions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.9 -9.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .83 -50.1%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.7 +3.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.0 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 -2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.3 -7.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 162.0 +32.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -9.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 +2.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$124.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.1 -1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.0 -.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 174 +5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.0 -2.0%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.8 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.4 -1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 85.5 +.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.2%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.5 basis points +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 607.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 46.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 52.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.3 -6.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.5 +.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.3 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(211 of 500 reporting) +9.0% +1.2 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.52 -.02:  Growth Rate +15.9% unch., P/E 22.0 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +17.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.74 +.07: Growth Rate +30.2% unch., P/E 33.7 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .69 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 -24.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 30.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.88% +99.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% +.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 61.6% (-5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 45.7%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +327 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +144 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -.7% 2) Foods -.3% 3) Pharma -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ENR, BRBR, PNR, J, ADM, WTW, D, PEP, INGR, ILMN, ELF, MRNA, BALL, CLX, UBS, KKR, MRK, GHRS, FN, PYPL, SYNA, PINC, EL and ATKR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MLCO 2) PCT 3) MTCH 4) EL 5) PYPL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ATKR 2) MRK 3) PINC 4) MRNA 5) CLX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) PAVE 3) AIQ 4) XLF 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +3.4% 2) Disk Drives +3.4% 3) Energy +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PLTR, BKSY, ETNB, AOSL, SGML, SPOT, PJT, SWTX, MP, KREF, ORIC, XPEV, CLS, HONE, PDD, OPFI, SSYS, STOK, ATI, AXTA, FRO, RMBS, TMCI, MPC, ETON, RACE, LI, SUPN, ASH, BIDU, PARR, BILI, CVE, ASTS, IMNM, CRDO, FIVN, XYL, HIMS, TNK, SIMO, REGN, DCTH, BERY, SHAK, CMI, RDW, LPG, BABA, ARVN, VLO, PII, VKTX, KD, FOXA, INTA, FOX, ENPH, STLA, ENPH, MUR, EQNR, DHT, RSI, AMD, ECO, PSIX, BZH, CNQ, RGTI, ROAD, PENN, STM, PSIX, TCBI, INMD, SILV, GEL, SNAP, SNOW and PSLV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EL 2) MAG 3) PRMW 4) ALLT 5) SYF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PLTR 2) SPOT 3) LANC 4) SMCI 5) ATI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) ITB 3) XOP 4) SOXX 5) XHB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BSX)/.66
• (BG)/2.24
• (EMR)/1.28
• (FI)/2.48
• (GSK)/.49
• (HOG)/-.66
• (ITW)/2.49
• (JCI)/.73
• (ODFL)/1.16
• (SWK)/1.27
• (TROW)/2.19
• (UBER)/.50
• (DIS)/1.45
• (YUM)/1.60
  

After the Close: 

• (AFL)/1.62
• (ALGN)/2.45
• (ALL)/6.27
• (ARM)/.34
• (AVB)/2.83
• (COHR)/.69
• (F)/.34
• (FORM)/.29
• (MCK)/8.00
• (MET)/2.11
• (MSTR)/-.09
• (NTGR)/-.24
• (NWSA)/.31
• (ORLY)/9.75
• (STE)/2.32
• (VKTX)/-.27
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Jan. is estimated to rise to 150K versus 122K in Dec. 
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated to widen to -$96.8B versus -$78.2B in Nov.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Jan. is estimated at 54.0 versus 54.0 in Dec.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to rise to 65.1 versus 64.4 in Dec.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,720,400 barrels versus a +3,463,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -350,400 barrels versus a +2,957,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,079,600 barrels versus a -4,994,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.18% versus a -2.4% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the Guggenheim SMID Cap Biotech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 -1.3
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 68.9% of Issues Advancing, 28.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +10.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$64.3M
  
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
• 54.9% (+2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.2 +1.6
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.3 +3.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.6 +.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,148.4 +.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (FEAR) -6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.9 -29.6%
  
• Vix 17.1 -8.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -6.4%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Strong Dollar May Worsen $54 Billion Exodus From EM Asia Stocks.
• Investors With $6.8 Trillion Warn EU Not to Bow to ESG Backlash.
• China May Loosen Grip on Yuan If Trump Reignites Trade War.
• Asian Shares Advance After Trump Delays Tariffs.
• Oil Falls After Trump Delays Canada, Mexico Tariffs by a Month.
• Copper and Zinc Climb as Trump Delays Tariffs on Canada, Mexico.
• Berkshire Hathaway Buys Sirius XM Shares Worth $54 Million.
• Gold Holds Near Record High as Tariff Confusion Aids Haven Bids.
• Salesforce Cutting 1,000 Roles While Hiring Salespeople for AI.
• Goolsbee Says Trump Policies Could Slow Fed’s Rate Cutting.
• The $22 Billion Vape Industry Is About to Get Even Messier.
• Rubio Tells Congress That USAID May Be Abolished After Review. 
• Clorox Raises Guidance After Quarterly Sales Top Estimates.

Zerohedge: 

• Trudeau Bends The Knee: Canada Will Send 10,000 Troops To Border, Name Fentanyl Czar To Delay Trump Tariffs.
• USAID Absorbed Into State Department Under Rubio After DOGE Crusade.
• They Really Do Want Us To Be Weak Physically, Mentally, Emotionally, Financially, & Spiritually So That We Will Become Dependent On Them.
• USAF Spy Plane Runs SIGINT Operation Near Cabo As US Preps For Potential Cartel Fight.
• US Readies New $1BN Arms Sale To Israel As Netanyahu Arrives In Washington.
• Secret Service Agent: DEI Contributed To Near-Killing Of Trump.
• Goldman Conducts "AI Sentiment Check" After DeepSeek-Fueled Market Turmoil.
• OPEC Drops US EIA As A Secondary Source Assessing Oil Production.
• Angry Dem Lawmakers Blocked By Security From Entering USAID Headquarters.
• Russia's Medvedev Warns That US Deep State Might Swallow Musk.
• US stocks were choppy after Trump's tariff order and eventual 30-day delay for Canada and Mexico - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Watch: Hornet's Nest Kicked As Raskin, Omar Throw Public Tantrum Over USAID Hostile Takeover.
• Trump Should End The Ukraine War Now: 'Get On The Phone & Tell Zelensky It's Over'.
• Last Rites...
• Stocks and Dollar chop to Trump tariff talk - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Gold Hits New Record High As Tariff-ic Monday Sparks Tumult Across Markets.

The Wall Stree Journal:

• Trump and Congress Need to Attack the U.S. National Debt.
• U.S. Strikes Deals to Pause Tariffs on Canada, Mexico.
• Beijing Prepares Its Opening Bid to Talk Trade With Trump.
• Markets Bet Trump’s Tariffs Are Art of the (Temporary) Deal.
• The 24-Hour Blitz That Flipped One Senator’s Vote from No to Yes on Hegseth.
• Vanguard Is Delivering Its Biggest Fee Cut Ever. Its New CEO Explains Why. 
• University of California Schools Illegally Used Racial Preferences in Admissions, Lawsuit Alleges.
• Rubio Calls ‘Status Quo’ at Panama Canal Unacceptable.
• Everyone’s Rattled by the Rise of DeepSeek—Except Nvidia, Which Enabled It.

CNBC:

• Palantir shares rocket 22% after company posts strong earnings and outlook.
• Trump pauses tariffs on Canada imports for 30 days after doing the same for Mexico.
• Trump signs order establishing a sovereign wealth fund that he says could buy TikTok.
• Apple shares fall on concern Trump tariffs on China will hit profit.
• Trump names Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acting director of CFPB, as Chopra confirms exit.
• Temu parent PDD’s stock tumbles as Trump tariffs close trade loophole.
• White House says Elon Musk serving as a ‘special government employee’.

MarketWatch.com:

• Stock market’s wild ride on Monday could be a microcosm of what to expect in 2025.
• Palantir’s stock surges as AI traction drives huge earnings beats across the board.

Fox News:

• Canada blinks, President Trump delays tariffs on northern neighbor for at least 30 days.
• New York AG tells hospitals to ignore Trump EO about sex-change procedures for minors.

Newsmax:  

• Senate Confirms Fracking Exec Wright as Energy Sec.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• ARRESTS IMMINENT: Acting DC US Attorney Ed Martin Announces Incoming Charges Against Individuals Who Threatened Elon Musk’s DOGE Workers.
• Norm Eisen, Key Architect Behind the Color Revolution and 180 Lawsuits Against Trump, THREATENS Trump Deputy AG Emil Bove with “Severe Consequences” After Firings (VIDEO).
• WATCH: WH Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt Reveals Four Absolutely Insane Priorities That USAID Wastes Money On.
• WATCH: Stanley Cup Winning Florida Panthers Welcomed to White House – President Trump Gifted With “45-47” Jersey and Hockey Stick.
• WHOA: RINO Senator Susan Collins Announces She’s a YES on Confirming Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence Following Rumors She Was Set to Derail Gabbard.
• OMG: James O’Keefe Releases Undercover Video of DHS Official Admitting Department will Defy Kristi Noem (VIDEO).
• CNN’s Jake Tapper Asks Democrat Sen. Tim Kaine: ‘Why is Your Party So Staggeringly Unpopular?’ (VIDEO).
• Sen. Joni Ernst and Rep. Nicole Malliotakis Call on Trump to End Funding for Animal Testing in Chinese Labs.
• Toxic RINO Mitch McConnell Still ‘Very Upset’ With Trump Over J6 ‘Insurrection’ — ‘We Haven’t Spoken in Quite a While’ (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• CISA, FDA Issue Warning Over Backdoor in China’s Contec Patient Monitors.
• Trump to Speak With China’s Xi in Days, White House Says.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Why is USAID running a global Internet censorship program, which pools together 100s of censorship NGOs into a common network, with the USAID program’s express stated goal being to pressure foreign governments to pass laws and regulations to censor speech on social media? Good question.
• Imagine taking medical advice from a man who needs a pardon for the medical advice he gave. (pic)
  

• @GuntherEagleman

• BOOM! JD Vance just perfectly explained why Trump is taking such drastic actions with tariffs! “The problem with the this whole idea that they're gonna retaliate is they have already been taking advantage of America for decades.” “The retaliation is Donald Trump saying ‘no more’. “We're not gonna be taken advantage of anymore, and I think it's important the president is doing what he's doing.” (video)

• @ChristianHeiens

• Have Canadian libs never looked at a map of their own country? Line 9, which supplies Ontario and Quebec with virtually all of their oil, first enters the United States before flowing back into Canada. The Liberals under Justin Trudeau blocked the construction of Energy East, which would have supplied eastern Canada with Albertan oil without entering the US. Shutting off pipelines to the US means shutting off Ontario and Quebec too.

• @Bubblebathgirl

• Margaret Brennan, who recently got humiliated in her interview with VP Vance, gets humiliated again when she asks for examples of DEI waste in foreign aid the US gives. Rep. Mast came with the receipts and owned Brennan. (video)

• @MarioNawful
  

• MIKE BENZ: TRUMP PROSECUTORS WERE FUNDED BY USAID. “This push to prosecute Trump by Alvin Bragg, Soros was a minor co-funder. He gave them $10,000, that's it! The $14 million he gave to the parent company, the fiscal sponsor of FJP (Fair and Just Prosecution, a nonprofit that supports and influences progressive prosecutors in the U.S.), well, that ain't shit compared to the $27 million that USAID gave them. Every time you hear the word Soros prosecutor, no, they’re USAID prosecutors.” (video)
• ELON: "OUTRAGEOUS" THAT U.S. TAX DOLLARS FUNDED COVID DEVELOPMENT IN WUHAN LAB. "It's pretty outrageous that the COVID virus was developed in a lab in Wuhan and yet was funded by U.S. tax dollars, which was simply routed through this sort of fake nonprofit EcoHealth because the U.S. government can't give directly to China. So our U.S. tax dollars were used effectively to, in the end, kill Americans, which is insane."
  

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “Guess who signed up to that - Keir Starmer & Bill Gates”. “By 2050 - 100% reduction a ZERO farmed animals”. “What more proof do I want when I’ve got it in writing?” Farmer blows lid on UK Commie Government & Bill Gates plan to acquire all Farmland & cease agricultural production as we know it in Britain. (video)

• @SaiKate108
  

• Having suffered a seizure due to the Gardasil vaccine, Candace Owens was outraged to hear the lies spew forth from Caroline Kennedy. We were told it would prevent HPV which leads to cancer. But in 90% of cases the HPV clears up by itself. Plus there has been no decrease in those rare cases of cancer. Yet they forced this vaccine on all women. A number of whom suffered serious side effects. RFK jr is right again. (video)

• @ztisdale

• Just a reminder about the current state of Canada. The Americans are not our enemy, they're trying to liberate us from the Communist Party of China who has control of our governments. (pic)

• @JoshWalkos

• The FBI Reddit is openly discussing how to avoid being caught leaking. (pic)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,022,221 Reports(+6,174 from prior report) Through December 27, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +2.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 55.25 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +1.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.27%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.