Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Diminished US Trade Tensions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.9 -9.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .83 -50.1%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.7 +3.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.0 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 -2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.3 -7.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 162.0 +32.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -9.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 +2.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$124.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.1 -1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.0 -.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 174 +5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.0 -2.0%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.8 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.4 -1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 85.5 +.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.2%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.5 basis points +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 607.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 46.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 52.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.3 -6.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.5 +.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.3 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(211 of 500 reporting) +9.0% +1.2 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.52 -.02:  Growth Rate +15.9% unch., P/E 22.0 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +17.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.74 +.07: Growth Rate +30.2% unch., P/E 33.7 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .69 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 -24.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 30.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.88% +99.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% +.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 61.6% (-5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 45.7%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +327 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +144 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long