Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Diminished Trade War Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.8 -4.4%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .44 -67.1%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.8 +2.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.1 +.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 +.71%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.2 -2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 168.0 +3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .73 -8.8%

• NYSE Arms .89 +18.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$200.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.1 -.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 289.5 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 177 unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.7 -.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 141.9 -.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.3 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.1 -.33%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 85.1 +.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 +.48%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.5 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -1.0 basis point +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 602.0 -4.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.16%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 58.0 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.2 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.1 +4.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.7 -3.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(313 of 500 reporting) +12.4% +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.85 +.91:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.0 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.83% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% +6.9 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 403.80 +1.89: Growth Rate +30.6% +.6 percentage point, P/E 34.2 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.74 unch.
• US Yield Curve 22.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.94% +5.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.9% -1.6 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 73.1% (+.7 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 47.1%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +189 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +121 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long