Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.4%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.5 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.2 -.7 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.3 -.7 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(420 of 500 reporting) +10.5% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.24 +.10: Growth Rate +16.1% unch., P/E 22.2 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.88% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.23 +.30: Growth Rate +31.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.8 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 -13.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 23.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% +.7 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 77.6% (-9.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 53.4%(-5.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -98 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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