Friday, February 28, 2025

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Financial/Construction Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.99 -.52%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.5 -5.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.9 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.0 +2.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.4% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.23 +.45:  Growth Rate +12.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.3 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.67% +74.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +31.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 409.36 +1.58: Growth Rate +32.4% +.5 percentage point, P/E 31.0 -.8
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .43 -11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.62 -2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 23.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.48% -182.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.5% +4.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% -4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 69.7% (-2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 57.9%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -14 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -170 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/utility/financial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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