Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.05%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.3 euros/megawatt-hour -6.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.5 -.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.9 +.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.5 +2.7 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(456 of 500 reporting) +12.0% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.70 +.03: Growth Rate +16.3% unch., P/E 21.8 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.80% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.43 +.24: Growth Rate +31.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.57 +6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 17.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.1% +.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 73.9% (-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 53.6%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -107 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -131 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/utility/financial sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then added them back
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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