Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.3%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.8 -7.6 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.3 -10.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.1 -1.2 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(429 of 500 reporting) +10.8% +.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.30 +.06: Growth Rate +16.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.86% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.46 +.23: Growth Rate +31.4% unch., P/E 33.5 -.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -13.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 22.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.0% +.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 67.0% (-10.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 47.7%(+3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -641 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -108 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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