Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.16 +.24%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.2 -1.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -4.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.0 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(245 of 500 reporting) +12.0% +3.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.92 -.60: Growth Rate +15.6% -.3 percentage point, P/E 22.0 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.91% -19.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +19.7% +2.5 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.91 -.83: Growth Rate +30.0% -.2 percentage point, P/E 34.1 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.76 +20.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 23.25 basis points (2s/10s) -6.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.88% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.1% +2.5 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 60.3% (-2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 46.6%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +132 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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