Stocks Falling Sharply into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Tariff Concerns, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 -.32%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.9 euros/megawatt-hour +8.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.7 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.2 -2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +13.6% +1.6 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.78 +.08:  Growth Rate +12.1% -3.2 percentage points, P/E 21.5 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.93% +103.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +31.5% +4.9 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.78 +.35: Growth Rate +31.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.64 +7.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 21.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.3% +1.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 73.8% (+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 53.5%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -581 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -112 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech/utility/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long