Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 +.43%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.08%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.4 euros/megawatt-hour -7.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.9 +.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.1 +3.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.0 -1.4 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(370 of 500 reporting) +11.0% -.5 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.94 +.14: Growth Rate +16.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.80% -6.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.33 -.24: Growth Rate +30.7% unch., P/E 34.3 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.70 +2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 21.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.94% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.2% -1.5 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.81% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 85.2% (-4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 58.9%(-7.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +24 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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