Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.07%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.07%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour -6.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.7 -2.2 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.8 +.4 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(444 of 500 reporting) +12.1% +.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.67 +.13: Growth Rate +16.3% unch., P/E 21.6 -.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.80% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.09 +.20: Growth Rate +31.6% unch., P/E 31.6 -1.0
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 unch.
- US Yield Curve 19.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.8% +3.3 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% +1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 72.6% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 51.8%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -177 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +202 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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