Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -1.7%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.10 -37.7%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 77.7 +.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.5 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.9 +.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.9 +.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 150.0 -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 +9.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 unch.
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$2.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.2 -.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 303.2 +.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 170.0 +8

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.6 +.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 134.9 +.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 basis points +5.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.9 -.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 155.2 +.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 86.8 -.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.23 +.17%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 basis points -1.5 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -3.0 basis point -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 131.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 592.0 -2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.5 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.2 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.4 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(431 of 500 reporting) +11.8% +1.0 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.54 +.24:  Growth Rate +16.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.79% -7.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.89 +.43: Growth Rate +31.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -1.0
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 -17.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +12.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 23.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.5% +.5 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 73.5% (+5.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 49.0%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -621 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -103 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some 
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long