Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Biotech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -.9%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .55 -42.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 79.1 +.7% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 +.12%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.6 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.17 +.14%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.9 -1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 -2.0

• Total Put/Call .73 -22.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +50.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$208.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.7 -.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 355.0 -1.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 206.0 -5.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 -1.6%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 118.3 -1.54%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 77.0 -2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.4 -1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 145.9 -1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 77.9 +4.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.5 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -13.25 basis points -2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.5 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 584.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 52.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 +.05%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.24% -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.21% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.0 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.9 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.6 -2.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(454 of 500 reporting) +11.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.29 +.12:  Growth Rate +12.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.45% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 469.06 +.65: Growth Rate +24.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.1 -.3
• US Yield Curve 55.25 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.7% +1.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 66.9% (+6.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 55.0%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -124 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +68 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Nuclear -2.7% 2) I-Banking -2.0% 3) Electrification -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FWRD, DY, CSGP, FIX, KR, HRB, GEV, ETOR, VRT, SDM, GLBE, SPRY, PSIX, SDM, NBIS, LPLA, USAR, SEI, CAE, MSGE, FTK, CART, LEU, CAVA and CRWV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CAVA 2) COHR 3) PSKY 4) LITE 5) XLB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LAZR 2) CRWV 3) CART 4) CAVA 5) KLC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) SKYY 3) XLE 4) XLV 5) FDN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +2.6% 2) Biotech +2.4% 3) Computer Hardware +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WBTN, ATNF, ARCT, PSKY, NEGG, CRNC, STOK, HBM, CC, INTA, HI, GIL, OUST, SAIL, BMNR, VVX, DAVE, SPIR, VG, CLPT, AVBP, CPRI, DNA, ESTA, LIF, LMND, LGIH, TWLO, TEM, PONY, FUTU, RIGL, ECG, AI, XRAY, RDNT, BE, AMRZ, TLK, NEXN, DAVA, TATT, AMN, OPRX, AAON, SB ET, ONC, AMD, LEN, CCOI, BC, PFGC, SIRI, TIGR, LOW, MBC, CROX, TCOM, THO, MNDY, BIDU, RGTI, PAR, DLO, LLY, BL, MATV, GCT, LENZ, MDGL, TRS, RKT, NICE and GDOT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PKSY 2) EAT 3) XLB 4) GLBE 5) VFF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WBTN 2) ATNF 3) SMWB 4) PSKY 5) INTA

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLF 3) SMH 4) XLK 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/.56
• (BIRK)/.60
• (DE)/4.58
• (JD)/3.65
• (NTES)/14.90
• (NICE)/2.99
• (TPR)/1.02
• (VIPS)/3.98
• (WB)/.43 
• (SPTN)/.50 

After the Close: 

• (AMAT)/2.36
• (SNDK)/.04 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The PPI Final Demand MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in June.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 225K versus 226K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1967K versus 1974K prior. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (IDXX) investor day, (AZZ) analyst day and the (EA) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 unch.
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 67.7% of Issues Advancing, 30.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.68 +65.0% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$214.4M
  
• 169 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 55.2% (+4.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.3 +3.6

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 78.7% +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.7 +.7%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.3 -1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.2 -12.9%
  
• Vix 14.7 +.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .66 -29.8%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge 

• In one year, this will be the most popular chart on this site. (graph)
• Generation Alpha's Dream Careers, By Gender.
• Eco Loons Suggest Proliferating A Plague Of Ticks To Prevent People Eating Meat.
• Credible Outcomes To Trump-Putin Summit: Intel & Military Officials Weigh In.
• All this bull and not even extreme greed... yet. 
• Macrons Secretly Hired Investigator To Dig Up Dirt On Candace Owens.
• *BESSENT: WILL IMMEDIATELY ENJOIN IF COURT RULES AGAINST TARIFFS.
• *COREWEAVE 2Q ADJ. EBITDA $753.2M, EST. $675.7M.
• BESSENT: FED COULD HAVE CUT IN JUNE IF GIVEN ACCURATE DATA. BESSENT: FED SHOULD THINK ABOUT A 50BPS CUT IN SEPTEMBER. 
• 'Soft' CPI Sparks Relief Rally In Stocks; Wild Day For Ethereum, Bonds, & The Dollar.

• @CNBC 

• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.

• @TheTranscript 

• $CRWV CEO: "To that end, we are executing with pace and purpose amidst the market in which the supply/demand imbalance is only deepening..." CFO: "Our growth continues to be capacity-constrained with demand outstripping supply."
• $CRWV Coreweave CEO: "We have seen a massive increase in our workloads that are being used for inference...At the end of the day, right now, it's the powered shelves that are the choke point that is causing the struggle to get enough infrastructure online for the demand signals that we are seeing, not just within our company. It's the massive demand signals that you're seeing across the industry".

• @KobeissiLetter

• Shocking stat of the day: Data center energy consumption has reached a record 5% of total US power demand. This increase has been driven by the rapid adoption of digitalization and AI technologies. This percentage is now estimated to more than DOUBLE over the next 5 years, according to McKinsey. Additionally, data center load is set to account for up to 40% of net new demand added until 2030. Overall, electricity demand for data centers is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of +23% through 2030. (graph)

• @MarioNawful

• U.S. FAST-TRACKS SMALL NUCLEAR REACTORS. The Energy Department picked 11 companies for a pilot program to build high-tech test reactors, aiming to get at least three running within a year. The move follows Trump’s May executive orders speeding nuclear permitting and letting DOE greenlight test reactors without NRC approval. Deputy Secretary James Danly says all aim to “safely achieve criticality by Independence Day.” Small modular reactors promise cheaper, factory-built power, but face fuel, permitting, and manufacturing hurdles.

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio just officially REJECTED the United Nations climate proposal for “net zero” emissions. “The United States will not accept any environmental agreement that harms the interests of the American people. The International Maritime Organization’s proposal for a “Net-Zero Framework” is a tax on Americans levied by an unaccountable UN organization.” BASED MARCO.

• @Kylenabecker

• Anytime you hear a Democrat complain about "gerrymandering," I want you to think of this chart. 9 blue states with 32%-48% Republican voters: ZERO representation in The House. California, Illinois, New York, Maryland, New Jersey and Oregon have 34%-46% GOP voting. Look at those numbers.

• @LeadingReport

• BREAKING: Bill Clinton is the “prime suspect” in the Epstein investigation, per James Comer.

• @WarClandestine

• So a lifelong DEMOCRAT staffer goes to the FBI, tells them that Schiff was KNOWINGLY leaking classified information to harm Trump… And the Left-wing MSM are silent. If a Republican did this to Biden, every outlet would be wall-to-wall 24/7, we’d be getting alerts to our phone, Democrat politicians would be calling for people to take to the streets, and the sheep would be foaming at the mouth. But since the MSM are compromised and are complicit in the conspiracy to remove Trump, they don’t want to talk about one of the most damning revelations in US history. Their silence proves their complicity.
• These allegations from the Dem whistleblower are WILD. Schiff called a staff meeting, told everyone he was going to leak classified intelligence to harm Trump, someone pointed out that’s treason, other staffers said not to worry about it because they won’t get caught… WHAT?! (pic)

• @Inevitablewest

• BREAKING: For the first time ever: The FPO are polling 1st in Austria. The RN Party is polling 1st in France. The AfD are polling 1st in Germany. Reform UK are polling 1st in Britain. Europeans are voting for the most right-wing party available.
• BREAKING: Le Pen's RN Party has smashed their all-time polling record this month, and is now leading Emmanual Macron's party by 18%. The French want their country back!  

• @Geiger_Capital 

• Tariffs still showing very little impact… Goods inflation simply hasn’t materialized like many feared, certainly not an inflation shock.

• @Barchart

• Hedge Funds have now built the largest short position in small cap stock futures in history. (graph)
• M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22 Trillion. (graph)

• @charliebilello

• US companies are projected to buy back over $1.1 trillion in shares this year, another all-time high. The biggest single purchaser? Apple @ $100 billion. (graph)

• @AyeshaTariq

• Hyperscaler capex growth is accelerating to unprecedented levels. Next year, the Big 7’s combined spend will exceed 1% of GDP. That’s already larger than the telecom capex peak of 1999–2000. Still, it’s below the scale of the railroad boom, which topped out near 5% of GDP - GS. (graph)

• @amitisinvesting

• OH MY BULLISH $NVDA. SAM ALTMAN: "We are ~doubling our compute fleet over the next 5 months (!) so this situation should get better." goodness...

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 -1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.07%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 79.2 +.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.