Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Iran will seek to bar US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz and require compensation from hostile countries before they’re allowed to use it, according to local reports. 
• The White House has invited top executives from the US critical minerals industry to a meeting Friday with President Donald Trump meant to demonstrate the administration’s commitment to wean the nation off supply chains dominated by China. 
• President Donald Trump has signed an order imposing tariffs on imported polysilicon used in semiconductors and solar panels in a bid to reduce US reliance on foreign supplies that threatens national security.
• SpaceX plans to build its own power plants to support the massive semiconductor manufacturing facility it’s developing in Texas with Tesla.
• The Justice Department said it has found Duke University School of Law discriminated against applicants based on race, the Trump administration’s latest move in its wide-ranging higher education pressure campaign.
• Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said that with inflation running above the central bank’s 2% target, policymakers cannot afford to tolerate higher inflation while they wait for the possibility of stronger productivity growth.
• Nscale is telling prospective investors it has about $51 billion of total contracted revenue ahead of a US IPO that could take place as soon as in September.
• A days-long Bitcoin hack of "cold wallets" is further undermining confidence in an industry already facing pressure on multiple fronts. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 

• @ZeroHedge

• IRGC Strikes 'Hostile Targets' In Hormuz As Iran Declares Oman Deal Bans US-Israeli Vessels From Strait. 
• Fauci's fed-up wife flips the bird as ex-top doc miserably takes out trash hours after contempt vote. 
• These Are America's Fastest-Aging States. 
• A familiar act of mainstream media sophistry: work backward from a partisan verdict and then call the result analysis. The truth is wages are up for Americans across the distribution, but importantly earnings growth for Main Street workers at the 25th earnings percentile was 5.5% year over year in the latest data this past quarter—more than three times the growth experienced by workers at the 75th percentile. Median weekly earnings also rose a robust 4.6%, well outpacing inflation. This marks a stark improvement from the loss of purchasing power Main Street Americans experienced during the Biden Administration. 
• Mexico Bans Fracking In Key Shale Basin.    
• The Financial Consequences Of 'Gray' Divorce.
• It’s official: letters to prosecute Fauci have been hand delivered to
  @DOJ.
• These Are The States With The Most Empty Homes.
• Taking the pulse of global markets.
• Sen. "Mitch McConnell" (R-KY) said Thursday that he has been "discharged" from a rehabilitation center, nearly two months after he was hospitalized. "Earlier today, I was discharged from the rehabilitation center to continue my recovery at home," he said in a statement. The statement did not say when McConnell is expected to return to Capitol Hill.
• Voter Files In Arizona's Largest County Illegally Obtained In 2020, Records Show.
• BREAKING: A secret bot army boosting Mamdani on X appears to be operating from City Hall, according to an exclusive report. Cyber experts say they’re “100% sure” the IP addresses trace back there. So much of the DSA’s online support is astroturfed.
• Americans now pay more in taxes than they spend on food, clothing, and shelter combined. Think about that. Government has become so big and bloated that taxes cost more than life's basic necessities. Every American taxpayer should be outraged.
• Breaking News: Scientists have used A.I. to create new viruses for the first time, raising hopes for medical advances while also raising the possibility that the technology could someday be used to invent dangerous pathogens. just great.        
• Watch: Mamdani Booed Off Stage At Pro-Police Event As 9/11 Backlash Builds.
• US Immigration Agency Asks Public To Report Fraud, Anti-Government Activities.
• DeepSeek Resumes $74BN Mega-Raise - Then Warns It's Jacking-Up Prices.
• DoorDash Wins Federal Approval To Fly Its Own Delivery Drones.
• The COVID Lockdowns Gave America A Glimpse Of Socialism.
• Bonds Battered By Big Tech Issuance, Black Gold Bounce; Stocks Keep Sliding As Credit Reveals Reality.      

• @CNBC  

• Iran's chief negotiator accuses Trump of 'theater diplomacy' with Hormuz traffic near standstill. 
• Meta ordered to pay $567 million into abatement fund as remedy to child harms case in New Mexico. 
• CNBC Daily Open: Trump's deal seems to be in dire straits. 
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as traders await big jobs report: Live updates.    
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Sweetgreen, Airbnb, DraftKings, Trade Desk and more.
• What Friday's jobs report could mean for investors.  

• @TheTranscript

• Meta ordered to pay $567 million into abatement fund as remedy to child harms case in New Mexico.

• @WallStEngine

• The economics on $AKAM’s large cloud deals are surprisingly strong for GPU infrastructure: > Take-or-pay commitments. > Mid-60s to mid-70s cash gross margins. > Low-20s to low-30s operating margins. Management says these economics generally apply across both signed deals and the active pipeline.
• TRUMP SETS POLYSILICON TARIFFS AND PRICE FLOORS. President Trump signed a Section 232 action imposing a 15% ad valorem tariff on polysilicon derivative imports.
  $FSLR. The US will also set minimum import prices of $21 per kilogram for polysilicon and $100 per kilogram for polysilicon ingots and wafers. Polysilicon is a key material used in semiconductor manufacturing and solar panels. The measures are intended to support domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign supplies. 
• CLOUDFLARE $NET Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $696.1M (Est. $666M) ; +36% YoY. Adj. EPS: $0.29 (Est. $0.27) ; +38% YoY. Oper Income: $96.1M (Est. $90.2M) ; +33% YoY. FCF: $56.4M (Est. $59.2M); +69% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue: $2.86B-$2.87B (Est. $2.81B). Operating Income: $443M-$445M (Est. $419M). EPS: $1.25-$1.26 (Est. $1.20).  
• AIRBNB $ABNB Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $3.6B (Est. $3.58B) ; +17% YoY. EPS: $1.37 (Est. $1.25) ; +33% YoY. Adj. EBITDA: $1.3B (Est. $1.23B) ; +21% YoY. Gross Booking Value (GBV): $27.2B (Est. $26.42B) ; +16% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue Growth: At least mid teens. Adjusted EBITDA Margin: At least 35.5%. Effective Tax Rate: High teens. 
• TWILIO $TWLO Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.5B (Est. $1.43B) ; +22% reported. Adj. EPS: $1.47 (Est. $1.32) ; +24% YoY. FCF: $352.6M (Est. $322M) ; +34% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Free Cash Flow: $1.1B-$1.2B (Est. $1.1B). Revenue Growth: +18%-+18.5%. Organic Revenue Growth: +13%-+13.5% YoY. Non-GAAP Op. Income: $1.1B-$1.2B. 
• APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS $AAOI Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $191.9M (Est. $190M) ; +86% YoY. Adj. EPS: $0.06 (Est. $0.01). Non-GAAP Net Income: $5.5M (Est. $1.7M). Q3 Guide: Revenue: $255M-$290M (Est. $278M) . EPS: $0.11-$0.26 (Est. $0.28). Net Income: $10.1M-$24.0M (Est. $25.2M). Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 29% to 30.5%. 

• @MerengoFS 

• $TTWO Earnings Preview. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 +.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.74%. 
• Crude Oil 78.20/bbl. +1.1% 
• Gold 4,310.90 USD/t oz. +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.30 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.47 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.0 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.68%  unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.94% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by basic material and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.