Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Treasury's US Debt Buyback Announcement, Rising Pharma Breakthrough Hopes, Canadian Tariff Deal Optimism, Biotech/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.9 -1.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.8 +.9% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.12 +6.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 -1.1%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 139.1 -1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 52.5 -1.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.1 +1.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.3 -.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 78.7 -1.2

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.9 -.8
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(463 of 500 reporting) +50.0% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 390.17 +.19:  Growth Rate +32.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.26% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 949.05 +1.22: Growth Rate +83.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.4 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.25 -10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 47.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.9 +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 63.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.1% +.6 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.0% -.3 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.65% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 54.0% (+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.3%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +25 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long