Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 +1.1%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.3 +.4%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.18 +3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.4 +1.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 140.7 +.9%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 53.1 -1.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 +.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.0 +.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.4 -1.8
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 79.9 +5.4
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -.9
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(456 of 500 reporting) +50.2% -.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 389.98 +.10: Growth Rate +32.5% unch., P/E 19. -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.26% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 947.83 +.33: Growth Rate +82.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.35 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.1 -1.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 64.2 euros/megawatt-hour +3.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.5% -.2 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.0% -.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.71% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 51.1% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.0%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,140 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -121 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -48 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/energy/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long
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