Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.5 +.9%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.7 -.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.37 +1.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 140.5 +1.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 54.0 +2.7%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 +.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.9 -.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +5.6
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 78.0 -.7
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.2 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(466 of 500 reporting) +49.6% -.4 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 390.57 +.40: Growth Rate +32.6% unch., P/E 19.7 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 950.01 +.96: Growth Rate +83.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 51.0 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.46 -.24%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 65.45 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.1% -1.0 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.69% +4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 +13.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 52.4% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 44.9%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -720 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -7 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% net long
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