Thursday, August 27, 2026

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 +.4%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.7 -.01% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.20 +1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.6 +.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 136.9 +.04%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 53.7 -.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.5 +1.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.0 +.7
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 88.9 -1.0
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.1 +.9
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(481 of 500 reporting) +52.2% +2.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.34 +.28:  Growth Rate +19.5% -13.7 percentage points, P/E 19.7 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +133.3% -5.1 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 954.51 +1.23: Growth Rate +84.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.25 +5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 44.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.2 -.04%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 68.1 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.9 -.8% percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.6% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.67% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.3%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -20 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% net long

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