Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 +.4%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.7 -.01%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.20 +1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.6 +.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 136.9 +.04%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 53.7 -.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.5 +1.4
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.0 +.7
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 88.9 -1.0
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.1 +.9
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(481 of 500 reporting) +52.2% +2.6 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.34 +.28: Growth Rate +19.5% -13.7 percentage points, P/E 19.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +133.3% -5.1 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 954.51 +1.23: Growth Rate +84.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.25 +5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 44.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.2 -.04%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 68.1 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.9 -.8% percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.6% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.67% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.3%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -20 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% net long
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