Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.6 -.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.0 +.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .30 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.20 -1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.2 +.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 141.4 -.3%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 57.70 +3.8%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.8 +1.8
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.90 -.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.4 +.2
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.6 +1.8
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(446 of 500 reporting) +50.6% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 388.48 +.34: Growth Rate +32.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.0 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.23% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 944.42 +.39: Growth Rate +82.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 -.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.33 unch.
- US Yield Curve 46.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.1 +.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 66.0 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.8% -.2 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.8% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.68% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 -4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 44.5%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -110 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -68 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +1 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my energy/financial/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long
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