Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Venezuelan oil production will take decades to return to its peak of more than 3 million barrels a day even as a deal with the US prompts a boost in near-term output, according to Rystad Energy.
• Japan’s auction of 10-year government bonds on Tuesday will test demand for this key maturity as yields approach the milestone of 3% and investors position for an interest rate hike from the central bank. 
• Yields for the US 10-year Treasury topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025 following a spike in oil prices tied to renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Trump administration granted oil refineries the biggest amount of exemptions from mandates requiring them to blend renewable fuels since 2017, in a move that risks angering farmers ahead of the midterm elections in November. 
• An advocacy group backed by AI industry billionaires is launching an ad campaign in election battleground states to try to counter a mounting public backlash against a data center construction wave. 
• US regulators delayed for the fourth time additional hedge fund disclosure requirements that are meant to inform agencies about the financial positions of firms during market turbulence. 
• Venture capital firm 1789 Capital is leading a new funding round for Polymarket that will give the prediction-markets platform a $21 billion post-money valuation. 
• Stanford University’s student-run newspaper prevailed in its lawsuit alleging the Trump administration was targeting and deporting students on F-1 visas for criticizing Israel. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• Iran's Pezeshkian Gets Red Carpet Treatment Alongside Putin, Xi, Modi & Erdogan At Eurasian Summit. 
• Army Secretary Dan Driscoll Submits Resignation Amid Tensions With Hegseth. 
• Trump Mulling New 'Limited' Strike Package, After Fresh Iranian Attack On Jordan Base. 
• Goldman Upgrades Humanoid Forecast By 4 Times As Warehouses Become Ground Zero For Deployments.        
• Universities Could Lose Foreign-Student Certification Over Internship Rule Violations, Trump Admin Says.
• Take-Two Tumbles Most In Months As BofA Calls Grand Theft Auto Reveal "Impressive, But Unlikely To Surprise".
• *BESSENT TELLS JAPAN OFFICIALS RATE HIKES ARE NEEDED, NHK SAYS.
•  FDA Authorizes Generic Ivermectin Shot To Prevent Screwworm.
• "Lack Of Consistent Direction": The Complete Flows, Technicals And Positioning Market Recap.
• Fauci Told Aide To Delete Email About Risky Research.
• The Fallacy Of Stable Prices.
• *BETANCOURT'S NABEP TO DEPLOY 52 DRILLING RIGS IN VENEZUELA: WSJ. *WSJ CITES INTERNAL DOCUMENTS ON NABEP'S VENEZUELA PLANS.
• Feminist New York Governor Sports Hijab While Pandering To Muslim Voters.
• Oh, Canada?
• As 10Y yields hit the highest since Jan 2025 (after Warsh's hawkish J-Hole speech), the surge in rate hike odds continues, now up to 56% from 25% last week. A weak/negative jobs print on Friday (as some predict) will spark another rollercoaster. 
• From Hormuz To Hawks: August Ends With Dollar Down, Stocks & Yields Up, Anti-Fiat Assets Best.   

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump wants to floor it on economic growth as Warsh eyes the brakes. 
• Tanker struck in Hormuz, raising worries over escalation, as Trump vows to hit Iran 'hard'. 
• Stock futures are little changed after Wall Street closes out winning August: Live updates. 
• Trump Account holders may receive $250 Dell grant starting Monday, Dell Foundation says.
• House Intelligence Committee warns of 'Black Swan' AI risks.

• @WallStEngine

• ANTHROPIC SIGNS $35B CLOUD DEAL WITH NVIDIA-BACKED LAMBDA: WSJ. $NVDA will supply the chips and is leasing the underlying 700MW Texas data-center campus from $HUT, while Lambda will provide the compute to Anthropic. Hut 8 had already disclosed 15-year leases covering the entire campus, which it said could represent a ~$20B facility, but hadn’t named the tenant. Anthropic also signed a separate $45B deal earlier this month with NVIDIA-backed Nscale for NVIDIA compute capacity in West Virginia.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 -.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 35.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%. 
• Crude Oil 86.34/bbl. +.68% 
• Gold 4,493.0 USD/t oz. +.25%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.30 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.23 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 130.2 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.78% +3.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.18% +4.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.6 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.